A model for predicting mortality among critically ill burn victims

Abstract Objective To develop a model for predicting mortality among burn victims. Methods All casualties admitted to our intensive care burn unit (ICBU) with a diagnosis of thermal or inhalation injury were studied. Age, total and full-thickness body surface area (BSA) burned, presence of inhalation injury, gender, mechanism of injury, delay to ICBU admission and mechanical ventilation during the first 72 h were recorded. The 851 participants were randomly divided into derivation (671) and validation (180) sets. From univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses a mortality predictive equation was derived. Results Mortality was 17.6%. In univariate analysis, all variables were significantly associated with mortality except mechanism of injury and delay to ICBU admission. In multivariate analysis, age, total and full-thickness BSA burned, female gender and early mechanical ventilation were independently associated with mortality. Conclusions We propose a mortality predictive equation for burned victims. In this model, MV and not inhalation injury is a mortality risk factor.