Kerawanan Produksi Padi Di Pulau Jawa Berdasarkan Data Inderaja Dan Sistem Informasi Geografis: Kasus Pengaruh El Nino Pada Tahun 1997 Dan 1998

Experience in facing El Nino phenomena in 1997 suggested that climate anomaly impacts on crop production mainly rice. As one of rice production centers, Java has been essential in rice production for national rice stock. On the other hand, climate variability effected rice crop in Java and the effect was different among the areas. Early information on rice production was necessary to anticipate rice consumption need. Therefore information on exact location or area with decreasing rice production due to climate anomaly becomes very essential. It also attempts to increase the efficiency and affectivity in national food supply especially rice. A model to determine rice production has been developed using combined remote sensing data consisting of Landsat TM, GMS, NOAA-AVHRR, and OLR and other data from statistical bureau. The model consisted of sub models integrated by geographic information system to provide information on rice sufficiency to fulfil the demand. The model was developed based on the previous work, which used district as the area unit for West Java and East Java. The model in this research was applied for the whole Java and used sub-district as the area unit. The sub models were rice productivity estimation, harvest area estimation, rice consumption, and food production insecurity. A case study in 1997 and 1998 showed that El Nino phenomenon in 1997 impacted on decreasing rice production in Java. Minus values were found for the third quartile of 1997, meaning that the production could not fulfil the need. Although there were still several factor excluded in the model, the output of the model could be early information on rice sufficiency for consumption in every area unit.