Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst: Response of Tall Steel Buildings to the ShakeOut Scenario Earthquake

This work represents an effort to develop one plausible realization of the effects of the scenario event on tall steel moment-frame buildings. We have used the simulated ground motions with three-dimensional nonlinear finite element models of three buildings in the 20-story class to simulate structural responses at 784 analysis sites spaced at approximately 4 km throughout the San Fernando Valley, the San Gabriel Valley, and the Los Angeles Basin. Based on the simulation results and available information on the number and distribution of steel buildings, the recommended damage scenario for the ShakeOut drill was 5% of the estimated 150 steel moment-frame structures in the 10–30 story range collapsing, 10% red-tagged, 15% with damage serious enough to cause loss of life, and 20% with visible damage requiring building closure.