The potential impact of High Speed Rail development on Australian aviation

Abstract Air traffic on the Australian eastern seaboard grows between 2 and 3% annually. Airport development and fleet orders by Australian airlines suggest that demand for long distance transportation will outstrip the most constrained airports in the mid-2020s. Government and private studies have addressed High Speed Rail (HSR) in Australia over the last 30 years. None has progressed beyond the concept stage. With no commitment to build HSR in Australia, domestic airlines have not defined a competitive response. Airport congestion emissions limits emerging in the Australian market may change that position. The market share split and market size for rail and air are estimated for the east coast market by testing likely travel times against international experience.