Upscaling the productivity performance of the Agricultural Commercialization Cluster Initiative in Ethiopia

This report presents the results of an impact analysis of several scenarios related to the Agricultural Commercialization Cluster (ACC) initiative. This initiative was introduced by the Government of Ethiopia during the first Growth and Transformation Plan (2010-2015) as a mechanism to improve agricultural productivity and production within specific geographies by targeting a limited number of high-value commodities. The farm-household model FSSIM-Dev (Farm System Simulator for Developing Countries) is applied to a representative sample of 2,886 individual farm-households spread throughout the country, taken from the 2013/14 Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey. Simulation results show that upscaling the ACC productivity performance to the respective regions would lead to an increase in production of the main products ranging between 1.8% and 62.6%, depending on scenario, region and commodity. The average (across all ACC scenarios considered) country-level production increase for wheat, teff, maize and barley are assessed to be 29.6%, 21.1%, 12.8% and 12.6%, respectively. These impacts are driven by the rise in land productivity, rather than area expansion (through putting fallow land into cultivation) and/or area reallocation. The increase in crop yields would also have a positive impact on both income and poverty level of farm households. The average increase in gross income at the country and individual farm-household levels are assessed to be around 14% and 9%, respectively. These impacts could be more pronounced for individual farms: for example, 85% of the farms would experience an increase in gross income of up to 17% to 32%, depending on the nature of scenarios considered. The largest income change occurs in farms specializing in field crops, and in medium-large farms (i.e. farms with total production value of larger than ETB 9,000). The increase in both production and income would also raise food consumption and improve nutritional indicators.