Rational Voter Responses to the 2018 Trade War: Evidence From the 2018 U.S. House of Representatives Elections

I examine county-level outcomes of the 2018 U.S. House elections to investigate whether voters electorally responded to the economic impacts of the trade war tariffs in 2018. I find causal evidence that votes for the incumbent president's party (Republican) increased in counties that benefited from the domestic tariffs while those votes decreased in counties that were harmed. The median net effect is negative but economically insignificant. In contrast, I do not find comparable effects on the votes for Democratic candidates, which suggests the domestic tariffs largely impacted the turnout among Republican supporters but did not lead to switching of parties. Finally, I do not find any substantive responses to the retaliatory tariffs.