El proceso de cambio estructural de la economía española desde una perspectiva histórica

The historical experience and the economic literature show that the process of structural change of the economies towards more advanced stages of development is associated to a particular pattern in the evolution of the sectorial composition of economic activity. In a fi rst stage, the share in manufacturing increases while the share in agriculture decreases. In a second stage, the share in manufacturing starts decreasing, and the share in services starts increasing. This work presents a brief overview of the available empirical evidence about this process of structural change at international level, highlighting the case of the Spanish economy. As a result of the rapid process of structural change during the last four decades, the productive structure of the Spanish economy has converged towards that of the European countries, with higher shares in services and manufacturing, and a lower share in agriculture. Beyond the impact of cyclical fl uctuations, we can expect increases in the services share at the expense of manufacturing and agriculture share. According to the literature, these patterns can be related with demand forces (citizen’s preferences), supply forces (different trends in sectorial productivity), or a combination of both due to the openness to international trade, which can accelerate the process. Therefore, a deep investigation of the causes of this phenomenon of structural change in the Spanish case is essential inasmuch the future development of the process will determine long-run economic growth.