Goal-Oriented Optimal Approximations of Bayesian Linear Inverse Problems

We propose optimal dimensionality reduction techniques for the solution of goal-oriented linear-Gaussian inverse problems, where the quantity of interest (QoI) is a function of the inversion parameters. These approximations are suitable for large-scale applications. In particular, we study the approximation of the posterior covariance of the QoI as a low-rank negative update of its prior covariance and prove optimality of this update with respect to the natural geodesic distance on the manifold of symmetric positive definite matrices. Assuming exact knowledge of the posterior mean of the QoI, the optimality results extend to optimality in distribution with respect to the Kullback--Leibler divergence and the Hellinger distance between the associated distributions. We also propose the approximation of the posterior mean of the QoI as a low-rank linear function of the data and prove optimality of this approximation with respect to a weighted Bayes risk. Both of these optimal approximations avoid the explicit...