Ensemble Method for Reservoir Flood Season Segmentation

AbstractThe practical reservoir flood season segmentation is crucial to dynamically adjusting the flood-limiting water level in flood seasons. An ensemble method structure (EMS) was designed to screen out the most suitable method structure for segmenting flood season. The performance of the proposed EMS approach was evaluated in a case study in Chengbihe Reservoir, China. The results indicate that the method structures containing flood volume series sampled by using the peaks-over-threshold (POT) technique outperform the other method structures. To further explore the impacts of the flood volume index and the POT sampling technique on segmentations, the 1-, 3-, and 5-day flood volume series sampled by using the POT1, POT2, and POT3 techniques, respectively, were used to segment the flood season by using the method of directional statistics. The main findings are as follows: (1) the segmentation is most sensitive to the selected indices, sensitive to the sampling techniques, and least sensitive to the segm...