Impacts on the National Energy System

A scenario analysis helps to determine the impact of an ageing and shrinking population on the energy sector in the context of pathways to sustainability. The scenario analysis in InfraDem follows the German “Lead Scenario” for the implementation of official targets for renewable energies and efficiency measures. This scenario points out an ambitious but realistic development towards a far more sustainable energy supply system by 2030 with long-term perspectives for a low-carbon energy system by 2050. The analysis takes into account the InfraDem population, GDP and household projections. The results show that demographic change will have a rather small impact on the national energy system compared to expected changes caused by political targets and strategies and the implementation of new energy technologies. The difference between the InfraDem high and low variant is between 3 and 4% for energy consumption and emissions. Although total population will decrease significantly until 2030, demographic change will tend to increase the residential power and heat demand due to an increasing floor space per capita and total household number as well as the higher specific energy demand of older people.