Spatio-temporal Impact Effects of Guangzhou Metro 3rd Line on Housing Prices

Recently,along with the development of urbanization and urban rail transit system,the impact of urban rail transit system on real estate prices has become an interesting research topic,especially the theme of integrating temporal effects with spatial effects on real estate prices of surrounding areas has aroused more and more attention of Chinese and overseas scholars and specialists.On the basis of literature review about the impacts on real estate prices from urban rail transit system,using accessibility equality theory,comparative analysis method,hedonic price model including three characteristics:location,neighborhood and structure,GIS spatial analysis techniques,with a case of Guangzhou subway 3rd line and housing projects along the line,this article calculates the range of subway influencing the surrounding residential housing prices.And the spatio-temporal impact effects on the surrounding housing prices increment with the development of Guangzhou subway 3rd line from 2000 to 2007 is analyzed empirically,which includes the planning stage,the construction stage and the operational stage.The empirical results show:1) The nearer subway station away from city center,the smaller the influence range,and vice versa;2) Subway contributes to the surrounding residential housing prices increment.Housing prices has a significantly positive correlation with the distances of houses away from subway,and the larger the distance the smaller the impact on the surrounding housing prices;3) On sub-region variation,houses of Panyu District of Guangzhou are influenced the most,and average appreciation rate of houses in the impact range reaches to 20.48%,while those of Tianhe District and Haizhu District of Guangzhou are only 8.73%;4) On temporal effect,subway shows a significantly positive effect on the surrounding housing prices of Panyu District of Guangzhou in the planning stage,but the effects in Tianhe District and Haizhu District of Guangzhou are not significant.The impact on the surrounding housing prices is firstly negative and then turns to be positive in the construction stage.The positive effects of the subway on housing prices become more prominent in the operational stage.In conclusion,the construction and operation of Guangzhou subway 3rd line have highly stimulated economic growth in its passed area,and also lead to the appreciation of housing values along the line.This study will provide a helpful reference for city planning,real estate exploitation and choosing and buying dwelling house of citizen.