TENDÊNCIA DE ÍNDICES PLUVIOMÉTRICOS NA BACIA DO RIO CAPIBARIBE-PE E SUA INFLUÊNCIA NA GESTÃO DOS RECURSOS HÍDRICOS (TREND INDEX OF RAINFALL IN BASIN CAPIBARIBE RIVER AND IMPACTS IN WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT)

O aumento de desastres naturais causados por eventos extremos de precipitacao marcaram historicamente a bacia do rio Capibaribe. Grandes cheias e secas severas repercutiram diretamente no planejamento e gerenciamento dos recursos hidricos. Neste trabalho, as tendencias nas precipitacoes foram avaliadas segundo espacializacao dos seus valores positivos e negativos. Tais valores foram obtidos a partir de regressoes lineares efetuadas nas series temporais dos indices pluviometricos, recomendados pelo Expert Team on Climate Change Detect on Monitoring and Indices – ETCCDMI. Os indices foram calculados com o auxilio do software RClimdex e validados segundo seus erros padrao e significâncias estatisticas. Como resultado, as tendencias obtidas evidenciaram, para um cenario atual e futuro, aumento significativo das estiagens, acompanhado de reducao na precipitacao total anual, nos dias chuvosos consecutivos e nas chuvas intensas, na maior parte da bacia, principalmente no Medio Capibaribe.  ABSTRACT Normal 0 21 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabela normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; color:black; mso-themecolor:text1; mso-ansi-language:EN-US; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} The increase of natural disasters caused by extreme precipitation events marked historically river basin Capibaribe. Major floods and severe droughts have affected directly in the planning and management of water resources. In this paper, the trends in precipitation were evaluated according to their spatial distribution of positive and negative values. These values ​​were obtained from linear regressions performed on the time series of rainfall, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detect on Monitoring and Indices - ETCCDMI. The indices were calculated with the help of software RClimdex and validated according to their standard errors and statistical significance. As a result, the trends obtained showed for current and future scenario, significant increase in the droughts, accompanied by reduction in the total annual precipitation, rainy days in a row and the heavy rains in the most of the basin, especially in the Middle Capibaribe. Keyword - Climate change , Climate extremes , Climate indices , RClimdex