Fuel and Energy System Control at Large-Scale Damages. IV. A Priori Estimates of Structural and Functional Vulnerability

The paper continues the study of the possibilities of a multiparametric model that provides an aggregated description of the operation of spatially distributed fuel and energy systems using a single-commodity network. An approach to obtaining the characteristics of the simulated system that reflect possible changes in the supply of energy resources after large-scale accidents is proposed. Scenarios involving the simultaneous failure of a set of arcs corresponding to the minimum cut for an arbitrary sink vertex, where each sink vertex simulates the regional consumption of some commodity, are considered. The maximum energy flows for all sink vertices are calculated to determine the damage caused in these scenario assumptions. Different damage indices are computed and the expected damage diagrams are constructed based on them. A comparison of the introduced damage characteristics and the structure of the indicated sets makes it possible to trace the changes in the quantity and trace of energy flows with the change in the localization, severity, and type of damage. Postoptimal analysis makes it possible to identify spatial interdependence and mutual influence, as well as the technological features of the interchange and interconnection of energy resource production. The computational problems arising in the model calculations are solved effectively by flow methods.