Study on some disaster-forecasting models: prediction of disastrous losses due to tropical cyclones in Shanghai City after 2001

The trend and regularity of occurrence of strong tropical cyclones in Shanghai City after 2001 are predicted by three models (grey model, auto-regressive moving average model and artificial neural network model). The results show that there will be natural disaster conditions of greater than middle grade in 2001, 2006 and 2010, especially in first both years.The characteristics of three models in application are compared by numerical results to set up the base for establishing a comprehensive prediction model.