Analysis of an infill scenario for Rotterdam. Traffic noise, air pollution, and public health in relation to urban density and traffic of cars and bicycles

An analysis is presented of various elements of an infill scenario for the center of Rotterdam in the year 2030, corresponding to a population increase from about 30,000 to 60,000 inhabitants. We have implemented detailed future building designs in our software instrument Urban Strategy, and calculated consequences for traffic congestion, urban density, noise, and air pollution. Urban density increases considerably in the city center, which is generally considered positive for urban sustainability (economically and socially). The results for noise and air pollution are less positive. We find that the number of inhabitants that is highly annoyed by traffic noise increases. The corresponding health effect is estimated as equivalent to 100 life years lost per year. This may be used as an argument for reductions of motorized traffic in the city center. To achieve such reductions, the city of Rotterdam intends to implement various policies aimed at discouraging car use and supporting bicycles and public transport. A modal shift from car to bicycle will have positive effects not only on congestion, traffic noise, and air pollution, but also on public health due to enhanced physical activity. We calculated that the latter effect is a gain of 200 life years per year.