Estimating the Effect of Redistricting on Minority Substantive Representation

This article applies modern Bayesian roll call analysis to estimate legislators' support for minority-favored policies, and to determine the likely impact of competing redistricting plans on the substantive representation of minority interests. We first provide a theory of districting and policy outcomes that points to the importance of coalition building in advancing minority policy concerns and motivates our estimation techniques. We then apply this methodology to the redistricting of the South Carolina State Senate following the 1990 census. We show that this redistricting led to more minorities being elected to office but less substantive representation.