Atrial natriuretic peptide as a predictor of atrial fibrillation in a male population study. The Study of Men Born in 1913 and 1923

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation is one of the most common arrhythmias in clinical practice and it is often diagnosed after a complication occurs. The study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) for atrial fibrillation in a male population-based study. Methods and results This study is a part of the "Study of Men Born in 1913 and 1923", a longitudinal prospective cohort study of men, living in the city of Gothenburg in Sweden. A population-based sample of 528 men was investigated in 1988 when they were aged 65years ( n =134) and 75years ( n =394), and they were followed up for 16years. Blood samples were collected from all 528 men at baseline and plasma ANP levels were analyzed by radioimmunoassay. Hazard ratios were estimated by competing-risk regression analysis. One hundred five participants were excluded because of a prior diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, severe hypertension, or severe chronic renal insufficiency. Of the remaining 423 participants, 90 men were diagnosed with atrial fibrillation over the 16-year follow-up. In multivariable analysis, men in the two highest quartiles of ANP levels had a significantly higher risk for atrial fibrillation compared with men in the lowest ANP quartile. The adjusted ratio was 3.14 (95% CI 1.59–6.20) for the third ANP quartile and 3.36 (95% CI 1.72–6.54) for the highest quartile of ANP level. Conclusions In this population-based longitudinal study, we found that elevated ANP levels at baseline predicted atrial fibrillation during a follow-up time of 16years.