D2.6 Non-market impacts – health

This deliverable (D2.6) substantiates that part of the activity of COACCH Task 2.6 consisting in assessing and quantifying a set of selected health impact of climate change. Specifically the work focuses on: ‐ In addition to the warming caused by climate change, urban areas are expected to experience higher levels of warming due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect, which occurs because in urban areas natural land is replaced by materials that have higher heat capacities and thermal conductivity. We assessed the warming, including the UHI effect that can be experienced in European cities under scenarios of climate change and socio‐economic development (Part I). ‐ Climate change is expected to influence the frequency and severity of heat and cold stress, which has implications for human health and mortality. This study examines the impacts of climate change on future mortality in the Netherlands, and the related economic costs, while accounting for change in both cold and heat related mortality for different age classes, the time dynamics, demographic change, and additional local warming from the urban heat island effect. Results show that heat and cold impacts on mortality vary considerably between age classes, with older people being more vulnerable to temperature extremes (Part II).‐ Heatwave hotspot vulnerability mapping for major European urban areas is developed, by superposing different risk dimensions based on hazard, exposure and social vulnerability, including local warming from the urban heat island effect for the set of chosen socio‐economic/climate scenarios in WP1. This conceptual framework is applied to map heatwaves episodes in Europe at the spatial resolution of 1/8 degree (Part III). ‐ New VSL estimates for fatal events due to heatwaves that will be quantified by conducting specific discrete choice stated preference survey in Spain and in the United Kingdom. Then, tick‐borne diseases, a key risk for Europe, focusing on the welfare impacts of lyme borreliosis and tick‐borne encephalitis. An on‐line survey will be conducted in order to elicit revealed preferences (averting behavior) as well as stated preferences. The survey will be implemented in three countries with higher exposure, namely in the Czech Rep, Slovakia, and Austria. (Part IV). According to the original plan, the results of the two valuation surveys on premature mortality and tick‐borne disease were planned by month 22. Due to unsuccessful first round of tender, the original plan could not be followed and the task completion needs to be postponed. Specifically, despite the fact that a tender on the data collection was issued in early May, following the internal time plan, and although five to seven professional companies were contacted in each country to submit their bids, no bid was received from three out of five countries in which the survey is planned (Austria, Spain, and the United Kingdom). The tender process had to be formally closed and a new tender had to be opened, following the internal rules of Charles University, which took more than two additional months. To solve this unexpected obstacle, a new time‐plan has been prepared and internally approved. Following this revised time‐plan, the task related to valuation of premature mortality and tick‐born disease is due to March 2020, i.e. month 28 of the COACCH project. For that reason, this report presents ongoing research. A literature review on health impacts due to extreme weather (e.g. extreme temperatures and heat stress) and vector‐, water‐ and food‐borne diseases, as well as on the metrics that can be used to provide an economic valuation of these impacts ‐ e.g. Quality‐of‐life specific indicators, Willingness To Pay values, Cost‐Of‐Illness components, Value of Statistical Life will be appending to the survey results in March 2020; Projected burden of heat stress on mortality in Europe over the period 2030–2099 under various RCPs climate change scenarios is estimated. Contrast to the previous work, in particular done within the PESETA projects, other factors affecting heat‐related mortality are considered.