Dynamic and driving evolution of lake basin pressure in cold and arid regions based on a new method: A case study of three lakes in Inner Mongolia, China.

Abstract Static single-path assessment methods usually underestimate the lake basin pressure (LBP). Considering the cumulative transmission of multiple paths, how to assess the dynamic changes of LBP and reveal the driving evolution is not clear. Here, taking Hulun, Daihai and Wuliangsuhai lake basins in the cold and arid region as the study case, we established an LBP assessment method that coupled multiple driving paths. For the first time, this study reveals the dynamic and driving evolution of LBP and found that rapid economic development and accelerated urbanization dramatically increased the LBPs in the three lakes. Specifically, the LBPs in the three lake basins has increased by 90%–270 % in the past 32 years, and they experienced a stable stage driven by climate (1987–1992), followed by a slight increasing stage driven by agriculture (1993–2004) and finally a significant increase stage (2005–2018) driven by industry and urbanization. Different degrees of warming, populations and development intensities of agriculture and livestock were the main factors driving the spatial differences in LBPs in the three lake basins. The LBPs in the Hulun, Daihai and Wuliangsuhai Lake Basins exhibited phase driving, continuous driving and ineffective driving characteristics to the water environment changes, respectively, which were related to lake basin governance. Compared with the driving paths of water quality and water quantity, the LBP was most strongly transmitted through the water ecological path. Rapid economic development and accelerated urbanization will bring greater LBPs to the lake basins. Lake management should promote the construction of water environmental protection mechanisms that correspond to urbanization, such as land use, and continue to strengthen watershed governance to alleviate the impact of LBP, especially the impact on the service functions of water ecosystem. Our method quantified the LBPs that were transmitted from different driving paths and provided action priorities for watershed management.