RECENT PROGRESS IN SHORT-RANGE TRAFFIC PREDICTION

A key requirement of dynamic traffic management is accurate real-time data on the actual as well as the expected short term future traffic state. Information on expected future traffic conditions 30 or 60 minutes ahead can only be provided by means of a forecasting tool, capable of predicting traffic conditions in real-time. The DYNA project, which is part of the DRIVE II programme of the EC, deals with the development, implementation and testing of a real-time traffic forecasting model system for inter-urban motorway networks including an initial application in a pilot area around Rotterdam. It was decided to apply two different methods in parallel, whose results will be merged: - a statistical model, using a state-space/Kalman filter approach with explicit feedback of prediction errors; - a dynamic traffic assignment model, working in connection with a dynamic OD prediction method. The objectives and system architecture of the DYNA project are described.