Ensemble dispersion forecasting—Part II: application and evaluation

The data collected during the long-range European tracer experiment (ETEX) conducted in 1994, are used to estimate quantitatively the ensemble dispersion concept presented in Part I. The modeling groups taking part to the ENSEMBLE activities (see, Part I) repeated model simulations of the dispersion of ETEX release 1 and the model ensemble is compared with the monitoring data. The scope of the comparison is to estimate to what extent the ensemble analysis is an improvement with respect to the single model results and represents a superior analysis of the process evolution.