Development and validation of a cardiovascular risk score for patients in the community after acute coronary syndrome

Objective Following acute coronary syndrome (ACS), patients are managed long-term in the community, yet few tools are available to guide patient-clinician communication about risk management in that setting. We developed a score for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among patients managed in the community after ACS. Methods Adults aged 30–79 years with prior ACS were identified from a New Zealand primary care CVD risk management database (PREDICT) with linkage to national mortality, hospitalisation, pharmaceutical dispensing and regional laboratory data. A Cox model incorporating clinically relevant factors was developed to estimate the time to a subsequent fatal or non-fatal CVD event and transformed into a 5-year risk score. External validation was performed in patients (Coronary Disease Cohort Study) assessed 4 months post-ACS. Results The PREDICT-ACS cohort included 13 703 patients with prior hospitalisation for ACS (median 1.9 years prior), 69% men, 58% European, median age 63 years, who experienced 3142 CVD events in the subsequent 5 years. Median estimated 5 year CVD risk was 24% (IQR 17%–35%). The validation cohort consisted of 2014 patients, 72% men, 92% European, median age 67 years, with 712 CVD events in the subsequent 5 years. Median estimated 5-year risk was 33% (IQR 24%–51%). The risk score was well calibrated in the derivation and validation cohorts, and Harrell’s c-statistic was 0.69 and 0.68, respectively. Conclusions The PREDICT-ACS risk score uses data routinely available in community care to predict the risk of recurrent clinical events. It was derived and validated in real-world contemporary populations and can inform management decisions with patients living in the community after experiencing an ACS.