Coastal Stratocumulus Dissipation Dependence on Initial Conditions and Boundary Forcings in a Mixed-Layer Model

Abstract The impact of initial states and meteorological variables on stratocumulus cloud dissipation time over coastal land is investigated using a mixed-layer model. A large set of realistic initial conditions and forcing parameters are derived from radiosonde observations and numerical weather prediction model outputs, including total water mixing ratio and liquid water potential temperature profiles (within the boundary layer, across the capping inversion, and at 3 km), inversion-base height and cloud thickness, large-scale divergence, wind speed, Bowen ratio, sea surface fluxes, sky effective radiative temperature, shortwave irradiance above the cloud, and sea level pressure. We study the sensitivity of predicted dissipation time using two analyses. In the first, we simulate 195 cloudy days (all variables covary as observed in nature). We caution that simulated predictions correlate only weakly to observations of dissipation time, but the simulation approach is robust and facilitates covariability testing. In the second, a single variable is varied around an idealized reference case. While both analyses agree in that initial conditions influence dissipation time more than forcing parameters, some results with covariability differ greatly from the more traditional sensitivity analysis and with previous studies: opposing trends are observed for boundary layer total water mixing ratio and Bowen ratio, and covariability diminishes the sensitivity to cloud thickness and inversion height by a factor of 5. With covariability, the most important features extending predicted cloud lifetime are (i) initially thicker clouds, higher inversion height, and stronger temperature inversion jumps, and (ii) boundary forcings of lower sky effective radiative temperature.