Model-based techno-economic evaluation of fuel cell vehicles considering technology uncertainties

Abstract The future of fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) depends on its cost and performance competitiveness in the automobile market. In this study, we develop a techno-economic analysis framework to compare the cost and performance of major vehicle technologies (internal combustion, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery and fuel cell electric) under various progress scenarios for the years 2035 and 2050. We utilize a vehicle powertrain model to compare vehicle technologies with similar engineering performance and evaluate their cost competitiveness. We define the cost as (2018) U.S. dollars per mile driven ($/mile) during a certain ownership period and include the vehicle purchase price and fuel cost. Our results show that, in the 2035 scenarios, the costs per mile for FCEVs are 36% or 22% higher than those of conventional gasoline cars, based on a 5-year or 15-year ownership period, respectively. In the 2050 scenarios, the 15-year ownership costs of FCEVs are comparable to those of gasoline cars with comparable engineering performance. In all the 2035 and 2050 scenarios, fuel cell vehicles have a lower driving cost compared with electric vehicles with 200-mile driving range. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that hydrogen price and fuel cell system cost are the major uncertainties that determine cost competitiveness of FCEVs.