Mean sea surface temperature changes influence ENSO-related precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes.

El Nino profoundly impacts precipitation in high-population regions. This demands an advanced understanding of the changes in El Nino-induced precipitation under the future global warming scenario. However, thus far, consensus is lacking regarding future changes in mid-latitude precipitation influenced by El Nino. Here, by analyzing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, we show that future precipitation changes are tightly linked to the response of each type of El Nino to the tropical Pacific mean sea surface temperature (SST) change. A La Nina-like mean SST change intensifies basin-wide El Nino events causing approximately 20% more precipitation over East Asia and North America via enhancing moisture transport. Meanwhile, an El Nino-like mean SST change generates more frequent eastern Pacific El Nino events, enhancing precipitation in North American. Our findings highlight the importance of the mean SST projection in selectively influencing the types of El Nino and their remote impact on precipitation. El Nino-driven precipitation profoundly affects the mid-latitudes, but how this impact changes in the future is uncertain. Here, the authors show that changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures causes an increase in rainfall linked to El Nino events of about 20% over East Asia and North America.