Branching Stochastic Processes with Immigration as Models of Covid-19 Pandemic Development

A special class of two-type branching stochastic processes with immigration is proposed to describe the Covid-19 pandemic development The model is constructed to use only the observed daily statistics and to estimate the main parameter of the infection In this way a forecasting of the mean value of the non-observed population of the infected individuals is available This is an advantage in comparison with other more complicated models where the officially reported data are not sufficient for estimation of the model parameters The development of the Covid-19 pandemics is considered for all countries as it is presented in the specially created site http://ir-statistics net/covid-19 where the obtained results are updated daily