High-risk patients following hospitalisation for an acute exacerbation of COPD

The aim of this study was to assess long-term mortality and predictive factors of death after hospital admission for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). 1824 patients (23.2% female; mean age 70.3±11.3 years) consecutively admitted for acute exacerbation of COPD in the respiratory medicine departments of 68 general hospitals between October 2006 and June 2007 were prospectively enrolled in a follow-up cohort. Their vital status was documented between October 2010 and April 2011. Vital status was available for 1750 patients (95.9%), among whom 787 (45%) died during follow-up. Multivariate analysis found that age (60–80 years and ≥80 years versus −2 versus ≤20 kg·m −2 , relative risk 0.80, 95% CI 0.66–0.97), lung cancer (relative risk 2.08, 95% CI 1.43–3.01), cardiovascular comorbidity (relative risk 1.35, 95% CI 1.16–1.58), previous hospital admissions for acute exacerbation of COPD (four or more versus none, relative risk 1.91, 95% CI 1.44–2.53), use of accessory respiratory muscles (relative risk 1.19, 95% CI 1.01–1.40) or lower-limb oedema (relative risk 1.74, 95% CI (1.44–2.12)) at admission and treatment by long-term oxygen therapy at discharge (relative risk 2.09, 95% CI 1.79–2.45) were independent risk factors of death. Mortality rate during the 4 years following hospital admission for acute exacerbation of COPD was high (45%). Simple clinical information relating to respiratory and general status can help in identifying high-risk patients and targeting more intensive follow-up and care. Interestingly, cardiovascular comorbidities and past hospitalisations for acute exacerbation of COPD, but not forced expiratory volume in 1 s, independently predicted the risk of death.