New Algorithm based on Liver Stiffness for Predicting Gastroesophageal Varices and Variceal Hemorrhage in Patients with Chronic Liver Disease

ABSTRACT Introduction and Objectives: The predictors for gastroesophageal varices (GOV) and hemorrhage development have not been well studied in different liver diseases or different population. This study aimed to evaluate whether a new algorithm focusing on chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients is also applicable to other chronic liver diseases (CLDs) in Chinese population. Patients or Materials and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 659 CHB patients and 386 patients with other CLDs. A total of 439 CHB patients were included in training set, the other 220 CHB patients and other patients with CLDs were included in validation set. A new algorithm for diagnosing GOV was established and its sensitivity and specificity for predicting the varices was verified. Results: Multivariable logistic regression revealed that the rough surface of the liver (p Conclusion: The new algorithm is regarded as a reliable model to prognosticate varices and variceal hemorrhage, and stratified not only the high-risk CHB patients, but also in patients with other CLDs for developing GOV and variceal bleeding.