Development and validation of a nomogram for prediction of survival and local control in laryngeal carcinoma patients treated with radiotherapy alone: a cohort study based on 994 patients.

Abstract Introduction To advise laryngeal carcinoma patients on the most appropriate form of treatment, a tool to predict survival and local control is needed. Materials and methods We performed a population-based cohort study on 994 laryngeal carcinoma patients, treated with RT from 1977 until 2008. Two nomograms were developed and validated. Performance of the models is expressed as the Area Under the Curve (AUC). Results Unfavorable prognostic factors for overall survival were low hemoglobin level, male sex, high T-status, nodal involvement, older age, lower EQD 2T (total radiation dose corrected for fraction dose and overall treatment time), and non-glottic tumor. All factors except tumor location were prognostic for local control. The AUCs were 0.73 for overall survival and 0.67 for local control. External validation of the survival model yielded AUCs of 0.68, 0.74, 0.76 and 0.71 for the Leuven ( n =109), the VU Amsterdam ( n =178), the Manchester ( n =403) and the NKI cohort ( n =205), respectively, while the validation procedure for the local control model resulted in AUCs of 0.70, 0.71, 0.72 and 0.62. The resulting nomograms were made available on the website www.predictcancer.org. Conclusions For patients with a laryngeal carcinoma treated with RT alone, we have developed visual, easy-to-use nomograms for the prediction of overall survival and primary local control. These models have been successfully validated in four external centers.