Phenological shifts compensate warming-induced drought stress in southern Siberian Scots pines

Global climate change impacts the functioning and productivity of forest ecosystems at various spatiotemporal scales across a wide range of biomes. Although summer temperatures are considered the main driver of boreal tree growth, the importance of soil moisture availability is likely to rise with decreasing latitude and increasing warming. Here, we combine dendrochronological measurements with evidence from tree growth modeling and remote sensing to quantify the effect of climate on phenology and productivity of Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) in southern Siberia. Between 1960 and 2017, pine ring widths along a latitudinal transect from 53 degrees to 56 degrees N were mainly controlled by the availability of summer soil moisture. This finding challenges the common belief that summer temperatures are the predominant growth control in boreal forests. Moreover, we show that earlier growing season onsets can compensate for warming-induced drought stress. Despite the phenotypic plasticity of Scots pines to adapt to warmer and drier conditions, we speculate that predicted climate change will likely exceed the species' physiological tolerance in much of Eurasia's forest-steppe by the end of the twenty-first century.