An evaluation of Chinese macroeconomic forecasts

This article evaluates the quality of professional macroeconomic forecasts in China for the years 1995--2009. Using a large panel of forecasts on four macroeconomic variables (GDP, inflation, consumption and investment), we reject the hypothesis of unbiasedness, and find that forecasters have been, on average, overly pessimistic. The source of the bias lies primarily in forecasters' slow adjustment to structural shocks to the level of economic growth. We also reject the hypothesis that forecasters use information efficiently, and find that a large number of forecasters overreact to economic news. Finally, we document large differences of forecast accuracy across both forecasters and variables.