Original Investigation Risk of ESRD in the United States

Background: Although incidence rates of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States are reported routinely by the US Renal Data System (USRDS), risks (probabilities) are not reported. Short- and long-term risk estimates need to be updated and expanded to minority populations, including Native Americans, Asian/ Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics. Study Design: Risk estimation from surveillance data in large populations using life-table methods. A competing-risks framework was applied by constructing a hypothetical cohort followed from birth to death. Setting & Participants: Total US population. Incidence and mortality rates of ESRD were obtained from the USRDS; all-cause mortality rates were obtained from CDC WONDER. Predictors: Age, sex, race/ethnicity, and year. Outcomes: 10-year to lifetime risks (cumulative incidence) of ESRD. Results: Among males, lifetime risks of ESRD from birth using 2013 data were 3.1% (95% CI, 3.0%-3.1%) for non-Hispanic whites, 8.0% (95% CI, 7.9%-8.2%) for non-Hispanic blacks, 3.8% (95% CI, 3.4%-4.9%) for non-Hispanic Native Americans, 5.1% (95% CI, 4.8%-5.4%) for non-Hispanic Asians/Pacific Islanders, and 6.2% (95% CI, 6.1%-6.4%) for Hispanics. Among females, lifetime risks were 2.0% (95% CI, 2.0%-2.1%) for non-Hispanic whites, 6.8% (95% CI, 6.7%-6.9%) for non-Hispanic blacks, 3.6% (95% CI, 3.3%-4.2%) for non-Hispanic Native Americans, 3.8% (95% CI, 3.6%-4.0%) for non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islanders, and 4.3% (95% CI, 4.2%-4.5%) for Hispanics. Lifetime risk of ESRD from birth increased from 3.5% in 2000 to 4.0% in 2013 in males and decreased from 3.0% to 2.8% in females. Limitations: Standard life-time assumption of fixed age-specific rates over time and possible ESRD misclassification. To be useful in clinical practice, this application will require additional predictors (eg, comorbid conditions and chronic kidney disease stage). Conclusions: ESRD risk in the United States varies more than 2-fold among racial/ethnic groups for both sexes.