Three years of data on factors associated with death losses and health costs in Ontario feedlot calves were analyzed. The results support the previously reported findings; however, significant differences in the third year (1980-81) of the study were noted. Calf groups that were "mixed" after arrival in the feedlot or had a larger than average number of calves (means = 142) had increased death losses and health costs. Calf groups whose ration was changed from dry hay to hay silage or corn silage as the major component of the ration during the first month after arrival had higher death losses and health costs. Feeding grain (barley/oats/corn) prior to, or concurrent with, the change to silage appeared to decrease the harmful effects. Cattle groups vaccinated against respiratory disease within two weeks of arrival experienced increased death losses and health costs. These effects were ameliorated by delaying vaccination in groups switched to silage; however, no benefits from delaying vaccination were noted in dry hay fed groups. Prophylactic antimicrobials in the water supply during the first week after arrival appeared particularly deleterious to the health of calf groups. The effects of prophylactic antimicrobials in the starter ration were unclear. During 1980-81, there was a marked decrease in the relative importance of fibrinous pneumonia as a cause of death and the feeding of silage was not significantly associated with mortality. Both these events may have arisen from the drastic decrease in the percentage of groups fed silage by two weeks postarrival (from 32% in previous years to 7% in 1980-81).
SUMMARY Using multivariable models, we compared whether there were significant differences between reported outbreak and sporadic cases in terms of their sex, age, and mode and site of disease transmission. We also determined the potential role of administrative, temporal, and spatial factors within these models. We compared a variety of approaches to account for clustering of cases in outbreaks including weighted logistic regression, random effects models, general estimating equations, robust variance estimates, and the random selection of one case from each outbreak. Age and mode of transmission were the only epidemiologically and statistically significant covariates in our final models using the above approaches. Weighing observations in a logistic regression model by the inverse of their outbreak size appeared to be a relatively robust and valid means for modelling these data. Some analytical techniques, designed to account for clustering, had difficulty converging or producing realistic measures of association.
The degree of agglutination in the tube agglutination test of the sera of 373 "reactor" cattle was compared to that of 800 "non-reactor" cattle from multiple reactor herds in southwestern Ontario. Vaccinated cattle had lower titers than did nonvaccinated cattle. Thus, vaccinated cattle were less likely to be classified as positive than nonvaccinated cattle irrespective of the method of interpreting the results of the tube test. When the full allowance for vaccination was used, vaccinated cattle were less likely to be classified as suspicious than nonvaccinated cattle. The extent of herd vaccination did not appear to markedly influence the effects of vaccination or the prevalence of reactors. Thus, it appeared that vaccination with strain 19 produced a small protective effect (inferred from the lower titers in vaccinated animals), but that the magnitude of this effect was markedly dependent on the appropriateness of the vaccine allowance for classifying cattle. Further work is needed on this aspect of vaccination with strain 19.
Two models estimating the proportion of Escherichia coli O157[ratio ]H7 cases not reported in the Ontario notifiable diseases surveillance system are described. The first model is a linear series of adjustments in which the total number of reported cases is corrected by successive under-reporting coefficients. The structure of the second model is based on a relative difference in the proportion of E. coli O157[ratio ]H7 cases which are hospitalized between the surveillance database and the underlying population. Based on this analysis, the rate of under-reporting of symptomatic cases of E. coli O157[ratio ]H7 infection in Ontario ranges from 78 to 88% corresponding to a ratio of 1 reported case for approximately 4–8 symptomatic cases missed by the surveillance system. This study highlights the need to increase awareness among public health workers of the potential biases that may exist in the interpretation of routine surveillance data.
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