Purpose Based on the prediction of the consumption of medical materials, the purpose of this paper is to study the applicability of the grey model method to the field and its predicted accuracy. Design/methodology/approach The ABC classification method is used to classify medical consumables and select the analysis objects. The GM (1,1) model predicts the annual consumption of medical materials. The GM (1,1) modeling of the consumption of the selected medical materials in 2006~2017 was carried out by using the metabolite sequence and the sequence topology subsequence, respectively. The average rolling error and the average rolling accuracy are calculated to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the model. Findings The ABC classification results show that Class A projects, which account for only 9.79 percent of the total inventory items, occupy most of the inventory funds. Eight varieties with varying purchases and usages and complete historical data were selected for further analysis. The subsequence GM(1,1) model group constructed by two different methods predicts and scans the annual consumption of eight kinds of medical materials, and the rolling precision can reach more than 90 percent. Originality/value The metabolic GM (1,1) model is an ideal predictive model that can meet the requirements for a short-term prediction of medical material consumption (Zhang et al., 2014). The GM (1,1) model is more suitable for a short-term prediction of medical material consumption with less data modeling.
PURPOSE Purpose: To investigate the clinical therapeutic effect and safety of thalidomide combined with temozolomide (TMZ) and three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy for patients with high-grade gliomas after operation. METHODS Methods: The clinical data of 108 patients with high-grade gliomas undergoing operation in our hospital from September 2014 to December 2016 were retrospectively analyzed, of which 54 received thalidomide combined with TMZ and three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (thalidomide group) and 54 received TMZ combined with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (control group). The clinical data of all patients were collected, and the short-term therapeutic effect, adverse reactions after treatment and quality of life scores were compared between the two groups of patients. Thereafter, the level of serum immune factors of the patients was recorded, and the overall survival (OS) rate and progression-free survival (PFS) rate of the patients were followed up and recorded. RESULTS Results: The therapeutic effect was evaluated in all the patients at 1 month after treatment. It was found that the overall response rate (ORR) in thalidomide group [68.5% (37/54)] was markedly higher than that in control group [44.4% (24/54)] (p=0.012), but the difference in the disease control rate (DCR) between thalidomide group [92.6% (50/54)] and control group [83.3% (45/54)] was not statistically significant (p=0.139). After treatment, the scores of 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) evaluating the quality of life in thalidomide group were higher than that in control group, in which the physical function score was statistically significantly different between the two groups (p=0.028), whereas the scores of the other items did not statistically significantly differ between the two groups (p>0.05). Following treatment, the levels of serum hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), interleukin (IL)-6, IL-17, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and epidermal growth factor (EGF) were remarkably reduced in the two groups of patients, and these indexes in thalidomide group were lower than those in control group after treatment. Among them, HGF (p=0.069), TNF-α (p=0.076), IL-6 (p=0.149) and IL-17 (p=0.114) showed no statistically significant differences, but VEGF and EGF were statistically significantly different between the two groups (p 0.05). Additionally, the follow-up results manifested that the median OS was (16.1±3.6) months, (12.8±3.9) months, respectively, and the median PFS was (9.0±3.2) months and (12.3±3.4) months, respectively, in thalidomide group and control group. Furthermore, log-rank test revealed that the patients in thalidomide group had longer OS (p=0.025) and PFS (p=0.040) than those in control group. CONCLUSIONS Conclusions: The application of thalidomide combined with TMZ and three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy for high-grade glioma patients after operation can prominently enhance the clinical therapeutic effect, improve patient quality of life, prolong survival, and produce tolerable adverse reactions.
Thyroid hormones significantly influence cardiovascular pathophysiology, yet their prognostic role in acute aortic dissection (AAD) remains inadequately explored. This study assesses the prognostic value of thyroid hormone levels in AAD, focusing on the mediating roles of renal function and coagulation.
Objective The objectives of this study were to forecast epidemic peaks of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in China using the grey disaster model, to evaluate its feasibility of predicting the epidemic tendency of notifiable diseases. Methods According to epidemiological features, the GM(1,1) model and DGM model were used to build the grey disaster model based on the incidence data of typhoid and paratyphoid fever collected from the China Health Statistical Yearbook. Model fitting accuracy test was used to evaluate the performance of these two models. Then, the next catastrophe date was predicted by the better model. Results The simulation results showed that DGM model was better than GM(1,1) model in our data set. Using the DGM model, we predicted the next epidemic peak time will occur between 2023 to 2025. Conclusion The grey disaster model can predict the typhoid and paratyphoid fever epidemic time precisely, which may provide valuable information for disease prevention and control.
Objective Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors reduce glycaemia and weight and improve insulin resistance (IR) via different mechanisms. We aim to evaluate and compare the ability of GLP-1 RAs and SGLT-2 inhibitors to ameliorate the IR of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients. Data Synthesis Three electronic databases (Medline, Embase, PubMed) were searched from inception until March 2021. We selected randomized controlled trials comparing GLP-1 RAs and SGLT-2 inhibitors with control in adult NAFLD patients with or without T2DM. Network meta-analyses were performed using fixed and random effect models, and the mean difference (MD) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were determined. The within-study risk of bias was assessed with the Cochrane collaborative risk assessment tool RoB. Results 25 studies with 1595 patients were included in this network meta-analysis. Among them, there were 448 patients, in 6 studies, who were not comorbid with T2DM. Following a mean treatment duration of 28.86 weeks, compared with the control group, GLP-1 RAs decreased the HOMA-IR (MD [95%CI]; -1.573[-2.523 to -0.495]), visceral fat (-0.637[-0.992 to -0.284]), weight (-2.394[-4.625 to -0.164]), fasting blood sugar (-0.662[-1.377 to -0.021]) and triglyceride (- 0.610[-1.056 to -0.188]). On the basis of existing studies, SGLT-2 inhibitors showed no statistically significant improvement in the above indicators. Compared with SGLT-2 inhibitors, GLP-1 RAs decreased visceral fat (-0.560[-0.961 to -0.131]) and triglyceride (-0.607[-1.095 to -0.117]) significantly. Conclusions GLP-1 RAs effectively improve IR in NAFLD, whereas SGLT-2 inhibitors show no apparent effect. Systematic Review Registration PROSPERO https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/ , CRD42021251704
As an important method for modern scientific management, accurate prediction is the precondition of policy and decision making. In this paper, the metabolic sub-sequence of GM(1,1), the topological order sub-sequence of GM(1,1), and the grey series in head position sub-sequence of GM(1,1) were used to forecast the medical oxygen consumption. A rolling check method was applied to examine the prediction accuracy of the model. The result showed that the metabolic sub-sequence of GM(1,1) provided the best prediction accuracy, which may provide valuable information for optimizing purchase management and inventory control.
Abstract Background Ulcerative colitis (UC) is an inflammatory disease mainly characterized by intestinal lesions, with persistent or recurrent diarrhea, mucous purulent stools as the main symptoms, accompanied by abdominal pain, urgency, and various systemic symptoms. The coexistence of viral bodies and other components of the microbiota with the host, in a dynamic equilibrium state, is a key factor in maintaining intestinal homeostasis and function[1]. Methods Perform metagenomic sequencing on the feces of 52 UC patients and 15 normal individuals to analyze the abundance of gut microbiota and viruses and their correlation with clinical indicators. Results 1. UC patients have dysbiosis of the gut microbiota, with a significant decrease in Bacteroidetes and a significant increase in Actinobacteria and Pseudomonas. There was a significant difference (q<0.05) in the presence of intestinal Rosebery bacteria between the healthy control group and the severe UC group; There were significant differences (q<0.01) between the healthy control group and the UC severe group in terms of Streptococcus lactis, Enterococcus faecium, Escherichia coli, Plantarum lactis, Lactobacillus rectalis, Enterococcus faecalis, and Lactobacillus reuteri. 2. UC patients have intestinal viral dysbiosis, There were statistically significant differences (q<0.05) between healthy individuals and patients with severe UC in terms of Bacteriophage sp., Enterococcus phage plant, Porcine type-c oncovirus, Lactobacillus phage LfeSau, and Siphaviridae sp. ctsfh5; There is a statistical difference (q<0.05) between mild and severe UC patients in Siphaviridae sp. ct4aE30, Enterococcus phage plantet, Siphaviridae sp. ctqOv4, Lactobacillus phage LfeSau, and Siphaviridae sp. ctsfh5. 3. We conducted a correlation study between differential microbiota and viruses and clinical indicators, and found that intestinal Roseburi bacteria were negatively correlated with modified Mayo score, ESR, and hsCRP; It is positively correlated with HGB. Siphaviridae sp. ctPB44 is negatively correlated with the modified Mayo score, ESR, and hsCRP. 4. We observed significant changes in the functional composition of the fecal microbiome in UC, with several microbial genes and functions identified in severe UC being more abundant than those in healthy individuals, including K13140, K01223, K02761, and K09454. Conclusion The gut microbiota and viruses of UC patients are disrupted, and whether in healthy individuals or UC patients, the predominant gut virus is Caudovicetes sp. However, the abundance of Caudovicetes sp. increases in UC patients. There is a certain correlation between intestinal Roseburia bacteria, Siphaviridae sp. ctPB44, and clinical indicators such as ESR, hsCRP, and HGB. References [1] Tun HM, Peng Y, Massimino L, et al. Gut virome in inflammatory bowel disease and beyond. Gut. 2024 Jan 5;73(2): 350-360.
To explore the efficacy and safety of 125 I radioactive seed implantation combined with intermittent hormonal therapy (IHT) in the clinical treatment of moderate- and high-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer.A total of 136 patients were divided into the observation group (n=68) and the control group (n=68). In the observation group, 125I radioactive seed implantation was performed, bicalutamide capsules were taken orally immediately after operation, and leuprorelin was injected from 1 week after operation. In the control group, IHT alone was administered. The level of serum prostate specific antigen (PSA), maximum urine flow rate (Q max ) and international prostate symptom scale (IPSS) score were compared between the two groups before and after treatment. Moreover, the overall survival (OS), tumor-specific survival (TSS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of patients were recorded.There were no statistically significant differences in the PSA level, Q max and IPSS score between the two groups before treatment (p>0.05). At 6, 12 and 24 months after treatment, the level of PSA in the observation group was significantly lower than in the control group (p=0.005, p<0.001, p<0.001). At 24 months after treatment, Q max in the observation group was significantly higher than in the control group (p=0.025). At 12 and 24 months after treatment, the IPSS score in the observation group was significantly lower than that in the control group (p=0.013, p=0.002). During the follow-up period, the intermission time of hormonal therapy and PFS time in the observation group were obviously longer than those in control group (p<0.001). In the two groups, OS was 97.1% and 94.1%, TSS was 95.6% and 92.6%, DMFS was 82.4% and 66.2%, and PFS was 72.1% and 51.5%, respectively. It can be seen that OS and TSS had no statistically significant differences between the two groups (p=0.405, p=0.496), while DMFS and PFS in the observation group were remarkably superior to those in the control group (p=0.037, p=0.022).125 I seed implantation combined with IHT is safe and effective in the clinical treatment of patients with moderate- and high-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer. Compared with the IHT alone, the combination therapy can significantly prolong the intermission time of hormonal therapy and effectively control the progression of disease.
Managing systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and heart rate (HR) is pivotal in acute aortic dissection (AAD) care. However, no prior studies have jointly analyzed the trajectories of these parameters. This research aimed to characterize their joint longitudinal trajectories and investigate the influence on AAD prognosis.
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