This paper proposes a test for the conditional superior predictive ability (CSPA) of a family of forecast methods with respect to a benchmark. The test is functional in nature: Under the null hypothesis, the benchmark’s conditional expected loss is no more than those of the competitors, uniformly across all conditioning states. By inverting the CSPA tests for a set of benchmarks, we obtain confidence sets for the uniformly most superior method. The econometric inference pertains to testing a system of conditional moment inequalities for time series data with general serial dependence, and we justify its asymptotic validity using a uniform nonparametric inference method based on a new strong approximation theory for mixingales. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated in empirical applications on volatility and inflation forecasting.
Objective:To analyze the change of the NK cells in peripheral blood,umbilical blood and deciduas of preeclampsia patients.Methods:The counts of the NK cells in peripheral blood,umbilical blood and deciduas of preeclampsia patients(n=42) and normal late pregnant women(n=20) were detected.The immune indexes of the NK cells in decidua were detected by immunohistochemical.Results:The counts of the NK cells in peripheral blood and umbilical blood in preeclampsia patients were significantly higher(all P0.05) than that in normal late pregnant women,while only in the deciduas of severe preeclampsia patients significantly higher(P0.05).The value of CD56 NK cells in the decidua of preeclampsia patients was significantly higher(P0.05).Conclusion:Both quantity and function of the NK cells in preeclampsia patients became much more and stronger,respectively.It suggests that the NK cells may have relationship with the etiology of preeclampsia.
The HIV-1 epidemic was mainly driven by men who have sex with men (MSM) recently in Beijing, China, with high genetic diversity. Novel recombinant strains were frequently reported at 3.4%-9.9%. It is imperative to interpret the recombinant modes and the putative transmission sources by near full-length genome (NFLG). Four individuals from the MSM population were identified as novel recombinant strains during surveillance of pretreatment drug resistance. NFLG sequences were harvested by near end-point dilution and nested PCR with two overlapping half fragments. Phylogenetic inference was performed with subtyping reference sequences and major parental strain sequences, to explore the patterns of genetic recombinant and potential sources of parent strains. The breakpoints were determined using SimPlot 3.5 to draw genome mosaic map, and the potential parental strains were confirmed by Mega 6.0 using segmental neighbor-joining trees. BL19487-00 and BL1948-00 sequences were obtained from epidemiologically linked individuals and shared similar breakpoints (HXB2 nt 4,497 ± 8 to 4,722) with substitution of subtype B pol gene segment in the backbone of CRF55_01B. BL3104-00 and BL4307-00 carried seven and eight breakpoints, respectively, in the backbone of CRF65_cpx with g5 CRF01_AE substitutions. The recombinant fragments were located around gag, pol, and env genes, with vpr-tat and nef-3'-LTR genes only for BL4307-00. No transmitted drug resistance was observed with the four unique recombinant forms (URFs), except for some drug resistance associated mutations. The advent of URFs around CRF55_01B and CRF65_cpx identified in recent years implied that the sexual behaviors were active and the epidemic of HIV was complicated among MSM in Beijing. Molecular epidemiological surveillance and precise control should be reinforced for this population.
Two HIV-1 infections with unassigned genotypes were identified during HIV-1 pretreatment drug resistance surveillance. The near full-length genome sequences of BL5040-00 and BL5085-00 were obtained and were classified as unique recombinant forms (URFs) between CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC. Simplot (version 3.5) analyses showed that the two URFs shared similar recombinant forms, and in the backbone belonging to CRF01_AE, the gag-pol, vpu, env, and nef gene fragments were genetically substituted by CRF07_BC. BL5040-00, with 10 breakpoints, had 6 CRF07_BC fragments and 5 CRF01_AE fragments, whereas BL5085-00, with 6 breakpoints, had 4 CRF07_BC fragments and 3 CRF01_AE fragments. BL5040-00 strain had two additional recombination breakpoints in pol-vif gene. The presence of URFs suggests that the men who have sex with men population in Beijing has an active HIV epidemic and the genetic diversity of HIV-1 is complex, emphasizing molecular epidemiology and disease progression monitoring should be strengthened.
The package contains the code and data necessary to reproduce the figures and talbes in Li, Liao and Quaedvlieg (forthcoming). "Conditional Superior Preditive Ability." Review of Economic Studies.
Oxidative stress has been identified as a key mechanism in liver damage caused by various chemicals. The transcription factor FOXO3a has emerged as a critical regulator of redox imbalance. Multiple post-translational changes and epigenetic processes closely regulate the activity of FOXO3a, resulting in synergistic or competing impacts on its subcellular localization, stability, protein–protein interactions, DNA binding affinity, and transcriptional programs. Depending on the chemical nature and subcellular context, the oxidative-stress-mediated activation of FOXO3a can induce multiple transcriptional programs that play crucial roles in oxidative injury to the liver by chemicals. Here, we mainly review the role of FOXO3a in coordinating programs of genes that are essential for cellular homeostasis, with an emphasis on exploring the regulatory mechanisms and potential application of FOXO3a as a therapeutic target to prevent and treat liver oxidative injury.
The package contains the code and data necessary to reproduce the figures and talbes in Li, Liao and Quaedvlieg (forthcoming). "Conditional Superior Preditive Ability." Review of Economic Studies.
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