<p>This talk reports a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30m spatial resolution.&#160; For the first time we consider pluvial, fluvial and coastal flood hazards within the same framework and provide projections for both current (rather than historic average) conditions and for future time periods centred on 2035 and 2050 under the RCP4.5 emissions pathway.&#160; Validation against high quality local models and the entire catalogue of FEMA 1% annual probability flood maps yielded Critical Success Index values in the range 0.69-0.82.&#160; Significant improvements over a previous pluvial/fluvial model version are shown for high frequency events and coastal zones, along with minor improvements in areas where model performance was already good.&#160; The result is the first comprehensive and consistent national scale analysis of flood hazard for the conterminous US for both current and future conditions.&#160; Even though we consider a stabilization emissions scenario and a near future time horizon we project clear patterns of changing flood hazard (3&#963; changes in 100yr inundated area of -3.8 to +16% at 1&#176; scale), that are significant when considered as a proportion of the land area where human use is possible or in terms of the currently protected land area where the standard of flood defence protection may become compromised by this time.</p>
This article presents the results of an exploratory study comparing interval-valued scales (IVSs) and semantic differential scales (SDSs). The article investigates consumer perceptions regarding specific scale attributes and utilizes a controlled, between-subjects, experimental pen-and-paper design to assess the preferences of respondents when using the IVSs and SDSs. The rationale of this comparison lies with the fact that the newly introduced IVS has a built-in mechanism that allows the direct capture of respondent uncertainty toward the asked question, a feature that is absent from the SDS and other widely used, single-point capturing scales in marketing research such as the Likert and Stapel. Results show that overall consumer preferences of the IVS and SDS are equal, although “speed of use” results favor the IVS. The consistency of respondent evaluations regarding the two scales may indicate their interchangeability in marketing research and opens up pathways for future exploration of IVSs for the accumulation of more reliable and robust results. The main contribution of the article is the introduction of a novel IVS, within the context of marketing, for collecting respondent answers while also directly capturing respondent uncertainty. Furthermore, this article adds to the discussion of consumer perceptions and preferences regarding different scales, scale development, and optimal rating scales that may lessen ambiguity for survey respondents and researchers.
The Internet has become an increasingly popular form of data collection because it permits complex questionnaires to be administered more quickly, flexibly, and inexpensively than conventional survey methods. However, the Internet is restricted to individuals with access to computer networks. Thus, causal inferences to the general population from analyses of Internet samples necessarily rest on two untested assumptions: (a) that the decision-making processes of Internet users are similar to those used by the general population, and (b) that representative samples of Internet users can be drawn. The authors provide mixed support for these assumptions. They find that current Internet sampling techniques only permit the generation of diverse, not representative, samples. However, comparing samples drawn simultaneously using the Internet and probabilistic telephone methods, the authors demonstrate that the psychological mechanisms underlying common political decisions do not differ between Internet users and the population. They discuss the implications of these findings for future survey research.
Four typical applications of Bayesian methods in pharmaceutical research are outlined.The implications of the use of such methods are discussed, and comparisons with traditional methodologies are given.
With 70 percent of its population living in coastal areas and low-lying deltas, Vietnam is exposed to many natural hazards, including river and coastal flooding.These hazards are expected to worsen due to climate change, and the impacts of any change in hazard magnitude may be particularly acute in this region.This paper examines the exposure of the population and poor people in particular to current and future flooding at the country level, using new high-resolution flood hazard maps and spatial socioeconomic data.The paper also examines flood exposure and poverty at the local level within Ho Chi Minh City.The national-level analysis finds that a third (33 percent) of today's population is already exposed to a flood, which occurs once every 25 years, assuming no protection.For the same return period flood under current socioeconomic conditions, climate change may increase the number exposed to 38 to 46 percent of the population.Climate change impacts can make frequent
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