People have the natural tendency to be optimistic and believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely, but also want to avoid overestimation that could result in bad decision-making. Brunnermeier, Gollier and Parker (2005, 2007) established an optimal beliefs framework that balances these two incentives. This paper follows and extends the optimal beliefs framework to consider optimal beliefs in the long run in an overlapping generations sense. Assuming no short-selling, result shows that, in almost all cases, there does not exist a stable and interior long-term optimal belief.
Extant research demonstrates that property appropriation hazard may play a crucial role in shaping the international expansion mode of emerging market enterprises, but many of its implications are yet to be discussed thoroughly, for instance, the contexts and mechanisms that property appropriation hazard affect the strategies of emerging market venture capital (VC) firms. In this study, we examine the effect of property appropriation hazard on cross-border transactions, focusing on the syndication choice of cross-border VC investments. Utilizing in-depth data concerned with specific cross-border VC deals, this study suggests as the property appropriation hazard of home market increases, the VCs from emerging markets are more likely to syndicate with local VCs in host market. Furthermore, Bilateral investment treaties between home market and host market of the VCs can negatively moderate the positive relationship between property appropriation hazard and local VC participation. At firm level, we find bank affiliation has negative moderating effects on the positive relationship between property appropriation hazard and local VC participation. While considering the role of prior local experience of the VC form emerging markets, we find the moderating effect of prior host market successful exit experience on the relationship between property appropriation hazard and local VC participation shows no significant results.
With the continuous development of machine learning technology, machine learning methods have broad application prospects in medical data mining. This paper proposes a method of using virtual reality technology to assist drug addiction treatments with a sample size of 58 drug abusers in a drug rehabilitation center located in Zhejiang province, China. In the process of drug addicts watching VR videos in different scenes, physiological data of concentration and heart rate are collected. A hybrid machine learning technique that combines principal component analysis (PCA) and K-Means++ clustering algorithm is used to cluster drug addicts to find out the relationship between cardiac physiological characteristic data and treatment effect. The experimental results show that after VR treatment, the mean and standard deviation heart rate of the patients have decreased significantly, which provides a firm evidence that the patient's response to drug stimulation is severely reduced after VR treatments. The conclusion was drawn that the virtual reality is indeed effective in assisting detoxification.
The Yalong River originates from the Tanggula Mountains in the northeast of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and is an important water and energy base in southwestern China. It is located at the junction of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and the subtropical zone and has rich biodiversity. Protecting the ecological environment of the Yalong River is of great significance for maintaining regional ecological balance and biodiversity.Ten remote sensing inversion indexes related to the ecological environment were selected, combined with principal component analysis (PCA), the ecological environment index (RSEI) and water conservation function index (WCI) were constructed and classified, the ecological environment, water conservation capacity and temporal and spatial pattern changes of the red line area for ecological protectionof Yalong River source from 2000 to 2019 were evaluated. The results show that: (1) The RSEI of eastern part was slightly better than that of the western part, the area with excellent evaluation grade accounted for 15.96%, the good accounted for 51.28%, the general accounted for 27.61% and the poor accounted for 5.13%. The propotion of regions with slight improvement in RSEI trend was 52.96%. The northeast showed a slight improvement and the east showed a slight degradation. The degraded areas were scattered. (2) The ecological function of water conservation remained good, the WCI of the north was better than that of the south. The areas with worse, poor and general evaluation grades were mainly distributed in the central and south region, and were scattered. The proportion of areas with excellent WCI rating accounted for 43.22%, the good accounted for 35.71%, the general accounted for 17.45%, the poor accounted for 3.48% and the worse accounted for 0.02%. The change trend of WCI was mainly slightly improvement in the northwest and had greatly spatially difference, while it significantly improved in the south. (3) Since 1990, the temperature rising rate in the study area was 0.56 ℃/10a, the average temperature rising rate in the growing season was 0.1 ℃/10a, the precipitation rising rate was 27.7 mm /10a, and the average precipitation rising rate in growing season was 83.5 mm/10a. (4) Overall, from 2000 to 2019, the climate warming and humidifying in the study area was beneficial to vegetation restoration, carbon storage and reduction of soil erosion, and the ecological environment and water conservation function were improved.
Benchmark crude oils exhibited dramatic fluctuations in price spreads in the recent decade, a phenomenon that rarely occurred in earlier decades. This paper develops a rational expectations two-period model of spatial price equilibrium, and departs from standard models by assuming increasing marginal costs of transportation and storage. We econometrically validate our model using a dataset that covers an extended time period. The model allows us to determine the underlying causes of the unique phenomenon of drastically changing crude oil price spreads over the past decade.
People have the natural tendency to be optimistic and believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely, but also want to avoid overestimation that could result in bad decision-making. Brunnermeier and Parker (2005, 2007) established an optimal beliefs framework that balances these two incentives. This paper follows and extends the optimal beliefs framework to consider optimal beliefs in the long run after successive generations. Assuming no short-selling, result shows that in almost all cases there does not exist a stable and interior long-term optimal belief.
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