Objective To assess the effects of social deprivation on survival after cardiac surgery and to examine the influence of potentially modifiable risk factors. Design Analysis of prospectively collected data. Prognostic models used to examine the additional effect of social deprivation on the end points. Setting Birmingham and north west England. Participants 44 902 adults undergoing cardiac surgery, 1997-2007. Main outcome measures Social deprivation with census based 2001 Carstairs scores. All cause mortality in hospital and at mid-term follow-up. Results In hospital mortality for all cardiac procedures was 3.25% and mid-term follow-up (median 1887 days; range 1180-2725 days) mortality was 12.4%. Multivariable analysis identified social deprivation as an independent predictor of mid-term mortality (hazard ratio 1.024, 95% confidence interval 1.015 to 1.033; P<0.001). Smoking (P<0.001), body mass index (BMI, P<0.001), and diabetes (P<0.001) were associated with social deprivation. Smoking at time of surgery (1.294, 1.191 to 1.407, P<0.001) and diabetes (1.305, 1.217 to 1.399, P<0.001) were independent predictors of mid-term mortality. The relation between BMI and mid-term mortality was non-linear and risks were higher in the extremes of BMI (P<0.001). Adjustment for smoking, BMI, and diabetes reduced but did not eliminate the effects of social deprivation on mid-term mortality (1.017, 1.007 to 1.026, P<0.001). Conclusions Smoking, extremes of BMI, and diabetes, which are potentially modifiable risk factors associated with social deprivation, are responsible for a significant reduction in survival after surgery, but even after adjustment for these variables social deprivation remains a significant independent predictor of increased risk of mortality.
Journal Article The results of surgery for atrial septal defect in patients Get access M. E. COWEN, M. E. COWEN Regional Adult Cardiothoracic Unit, Broadgreen HospitalxLiverpool, U.K. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scholar R. R. JEFFREY, R. R. JEFFREY Regional Adult Cardiothoracic Unit, Broadgreen HospitalxLiverpool, U.K. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scholar M. J. DRAKELEY, M. J. DRAKELEY Regional Adult Cardiothoracic Unit, Broadgreen HospitalxLiverpool, U.K. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scholar J. L. MERCER, J. L. MERCER Regional Adult Cardiothoracic Unit, Broadgreen HospitalxLiverpool, U.K. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scholar J. B. MEADE, J. B. MEADE Regional Adult Cardiothoracic Unit, Broadgreen HospitalxLiverpool, U.K. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scholar B. M. FABRI B. M. FABRI Regional Adult Cardiothoracic Unit, Broadgreen HospitalxLiverpool, U.K. correspondence: Mr B. M. Fabri, MD, FRCS (Ed), Regional Adult Cariothoracic Unit, Broadgreen Hosptial, Thomas Drive, Liverpool L14LB, U.K. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scholar European Heart Journal, Volume 11, Issue 1, January 1990, Pages 29–34, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.eurheartj.a059587 Published: 01 January 1990 Article history Received: 23 December 1988 Revision received: 19 May 1989 Published: 01 January 1990
Deep sternal wound infection (DSWI) is a devastating complication of cardiac surgery, with a historical incidence of 0.4–5%. Predicting which patients are at higher risk of infection may help instituting various preventive measures. Risk calculations for mortality have been used as surrogates to estimate the risk of deep sternal wound infection, with limited success. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) 2008 Risk Calculator modelled the risk of DSWI for cardiac surgical patients, but it has not been validated since its publication. We sought to assess the external validity of the STS-estimated risk of DSWI in a United Kingdom (UK) population. Using our prospectively captured database, we retrospectively calculated the risk of DSWI for 14 036 patients undergoing valve, coronary artery bypass grafts or combined procedures between February 2001 and March 2010. DSWI was identified according to the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention definition. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was employed to test the performance of the model using the area under the ROC curve (AUROC). The calibration of the model was interrogated using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test for Goodness of Fit. A total of 135 (0.95%) patients developed DSWI. Although there was a statistically significant difference in the calculated risk of patients who contracted DSWI (0.44% ± 0.01) vs those who did not (0.28% ± 0.00, P < 0.0001), the AUROC of 0.699 (95% confidence interval: 0.6522–0.7414) denoted a modest discriminatory power, with the Hosmer–Lemeshow Goodness of Fit statistic (P < 0.001) suggesting poor calibration. A risk-adjusted modifier improved the calibration (P = 0.08). The STS risk calculator lacks adequate discriminatory power for estimating the isolated risk of developing deep sternal wound infection in a UK population. The discrimination is similar to the tool's validation c-statistic and may have a place in an integrated calculator.
To compare implications of using the logistic EuroSCORE and a locally derived model when analysing individual surgeon mortality outcomes.Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data.All NHS hospitals undertaking adult cardiac surgery in northwest England.14,637 consecutive patients, April 2002 to March 2005.We have compared the predictive ability of the logistic EuroSCORE (uncalibrated), the logistic EuroSCORE calibrated for contemporary performance and a locally derived logistic regression model. We have used each to create risk-adjusted individual surgeon mortality funnel plots to demonstrate high mortality outcomes.There were 458 (3.1%) deaths. The expected mortality and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve values were: uncalibrated EuroSCORE -5.8% and 0.80, calibrated EuroSCORE -3.1% and 0.80, locally derived model -3.1% and 0.82. The uncalibrated EuroSCORE plot showed one surgeon to have mortality above the northwest average, and no surgeon above the 95% control limit (CL). The calibrated EuroSCORE plot and the local model showed little change in surgeon ranking, but significant differences in identifying high mortality outcomes. Two of three surgeons above the 95% CL using the calibrated EuroSCORE revert to acceptable outcomes when the local model is applied but the finding is critically dependent on the calibration coefficient.The uncalibrated EuroSCORE significantly overpredicted mortality and is not recommended. Instead, the EuroSCORE should be calibrated for contemporary performance. The differences demonstrated in defining high mortality outcomes when using a model built for purpose suggests that the choice of risk model is important when analysing surgeon mortality outcomes.
Seasonal variation in mortality after cardiac surgery exists. EuroSCORE II accrued data over a 12-week period from May to July 2010. We investigated whether the accrual period for EuroSCORE II had a different mortality rate compared with the rest of the year. We found in a study population of 18,706 that the accrual period of EuroSCORE II may introduce bias into the predicted mortality, potentially reducing the accuracy of the new model.
Journal Article Systolic and diastolic interaction in the assessment of left ventricular function following surgical cardioplegia Get access European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, Volume 3, Issue 4, July 1989, Pages 335–345, https://doi.org/10.1016/1010-7940(89)90032-8 Published: 01 July 1989
INTRODUCTION Over the last two decades, many studies have shown better long-term patency rates and survival in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with left internal mammary artery (LIMA) to the left anterior descending artery (LAD). World-wide, LIMA is accepted as the ‘gold standard’ for surgical revascularisation and its usage has been steadily increasing. PATIENTS AND METHODS Between April 1997 and September 2001, a total of 4406 consecutive patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting with revascularisation to the left anterior descending artery. RESULTS Of the study group, 4047 (91.8%) patients received LIMA to LAD, leaving 359 (8.2%) who did not. Six sub-groups of patients in whom LIMA usage was significantly less were the elderly (> 70 years of age), females, diabetics, patients having emergency CABG, poor left ventricular (LV) function (ejection fraction [EF] < 30%) and patients with respiratory disease. CONCLUSIONS Although the current focus in the UK is on mortality rates, we believe that it will not be long before this will also include the incidence of major morbidity after CABG such as stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), renal failure and sternal wound problems. We also believe that we should now consider LIMA usage as a marker of quality control after CABG.
The requirement for hypothermia in myocardial protection has recently been questioned. Between October 1990 and May 1991, diastolic arrest was achieved using continuous perfusion with normothermic, hyperkalaemic blood in 257 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery. The mean age was 59.8 +/- 9.3 years (range 28-84 years). Coronary artery surgery was performed in 210 patients, valve replacements in 18, combined procedures in 22, and 7 patients had miscellaneous procedures. Eleven patients (4.3%) had undergone previous cardiac surgery, and 65 (25.3%) required urgent or emergency operations. Hyperkalaemic blood (7-20 mmol/l) was delivered antegradely in 190 (72.8%) patients (mean aortic root pressure 60-80 mmHg), retrogradely in 62 (25.3%) patients (mean coronary sinus pressure less than 40 mmHg), and by a combined route in 5 (1.9%). Sinus rhythm returned immediately after removal of the aortic clamp in 235 (91.4%) patients. Weaning from bypass was achieved without circulatory support in 207 (82.5%) patients. Of 233 patients undergoing non-emergency coronary artery surgery, single valve or combined procedures, 11 died, giving an operative mortality of 4.7%. Of 155 patients with good left ventricular function requiring coronary artery surgery, 3 (1.9%) died. The in-hospital mortality for the group as a whole was 7.3%. Sixteen (6.2%) patients sustained perioperative myocardial infarctions; of these 6 died. We conclude that continuous, normothermic, hyperkalaemic arrest is a simple and safe method of myocardial protection. It may avoid the damage associated with hypothermia, ischaemia and reperfusion.
Off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) surgery is being increasingly reported to show better outcomes compared to conventional on bypass grafting. We examined the effect of OPCAB on in-hospital mortality and morbidity, while adjusting for patient and disease characteristics, in four institutions in the North West of England.Between April 1997 and March 2001, 10,941 consecutive patients underwent isolated coronary artery bypass surgery at these four institutions. Of these, 7.7% were performed off-pump. We used logistic regression to examine the effect of OPCAB on in-hospital mortality and morbidity after adjusting for potentially confounding variables.The crude odds ratio (OR) for death (off-pump versus on-pump coronary bypass grafting) was 0.48 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.26-0.92; P=0.023). After adjustment for all major risk factors, the OR for death was 0.59 (95% CI 0.31-1.12; P=0.105). Off-pump patients had a substantially reduced risk of post-operative stroke (0.6 versus 2.3%, respectively; adjusted OR 0.26 (95% CI 0.09-0.70; P=0.008) and a significant reduction in post-operative hospital stay. Other morbidity outcomes were similar in both groups.Off-pump coronary artery bypass incurs no increased risk of in-hospital mortality. In contrast, there is a significant reduction in morbidity in patients undergoing off-pump coronary bypass grafting when compared to that performed on cardiopulmonary bypass.
'%3e%3cpath fill='%23012169' d='M0 0v30h60V0z'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23fff' stroke-width='6' d='m0 0 60 30m0-30L0 30'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23C8102E' stroke-width='4' d='m0 0 60 30m0-30L0 30' clip-path='url(%23b)'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23fff' stroke-width='10' d='M30 0v30M0 15h60'/%3e%3cpath stroke='%23C8102E' stroke-width='6' d='M30 0v30M0 15h60'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e)
