Abstract. Climate change is one of the greatest long-term challenges faced by humanity. In the projection of climate change impacts, scenarios based on assumptions regarding future conditions are commonly used. Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) are widely employed as socio-economic scenarios for global-scale predictions. The SSPs provide future projections of population and gross domestic products. However, SSPs are not suitable for detailed assessments for a country such as Japan, as they include only global regional data. The S-18 project aims at a nationally unified projection of climate change impacts across multiple sectors in Japan. In contribution to this, based on the previous study for Japan SSPs, we established common socio-economic scenarios designated as Japan SSP1, Japan SSP5, and status quo. Japan SSP1 and Japan SSP5 are based on qualitative links to global SSPs. Japan SSP1 foresees sustainable society with low-carbon emission, while Japan SSP5 envisions a society dependent on fossil fuels, emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases. The status-quo scenario assumes no future change based on the current conditions in Japan. Moreover, we provided a common dataset of population and land-use under these scenarios. Population data were obtained from existing population projections, and land-use data were estimated according to population changes and current land-use classifications. Here, the dataset prepared for the S-18 project is detailed and possibilities for its improvement discussed.
Land use scenario calculation: Executable files, source code files and data files This dataset contains program codes and input data used for reproducing land use scenarios explained in Chapter 5.2 in Yoshikawa et al. (submitted to GMDD). We found a few fatal errors in the following code. These code were fixed from version 2 (http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7090670). /Step3/a01_calc_land_use.py /Step3/a01_calc_land_use_std.py /Step3/a01_calc_land_use_rate.py /Step3/run03.bat
The Coastal Zone Management Subgroup (CZMS) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposed a world-wide project of the vulnerability assessment on a case study basis. This paper describes a need of the databese for vulnerability assessment to sea level rise in Asian and Pacific region, which helps researchers to assess each study area in an objective and common method. Importance of the regional assessment in the Asia and Pacific is also stressed, and the first step of this regional assessment in the study area was carried out, using the Asian Pacific Database.
Climate change is a fundamental change in the Earth’s physical systems; it has a range of effects on many systems and sectors that rely on climate, such as water resources, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, food production, natural disasters, coastal zones, industries and human health. These effects have apparently been occurring because climate change accelerated in the last decades of the twentieth century. Sea ice and permafrost areas have significantly shrunken in the Arctic, where the largest rise in atmospheric temperature is observed. Many species and ecosystems have started moving towards the poles and higher elevations in mountains. Several extreme events causing serious damage to human society have occurred in the twenty-first century, such as the heatwave in Europe in 2003, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, recent droughts in Australia and floods and droughts in Asia and Africa. Although the causal relationship between individual extreme events and global warming cannot be identified, the increase in the intensity of natural disasters resulting in further threats to human society has been a major concern.
An overview is presented on the possible impacts of sea level rise and climate change induced by global warming on the coastal zones through a literature review. Several changes in physical conditions are identified as basic impacts, including inundation, exacerbation of storm surge and coastal flooding, increase in erosion, and salt water intrusion into rivers and aquifers. Serious secondary impacts are brought about by these basic changes on the socio-economic activities and natural environment. In order to give a firm basis for establishing response strategies, a framework is developed for quantitative assessment for these impacts, on the basis of understanding the mechanisms of impact occurence by an event-tree analysis. Assessments are necessary to two primary fields, one is changes in physical external forces and the other vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems in the coastal zone.
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