The contemporary global community is increasingly interdependent and confronted with systemic risks posed by the actions and interactions of actors existing beneath the level of formal institutions, often operating outside effective governance structures. Frequently, these actors are human agents, such as rogue traders or aggressive financial innovators, terrorists, groups of dissidents, or unauthorized sources of sensitive or secret information about government or private sector activities. In other instances, influential "actors" take the form of climate change, communications technologies, or socioeconomic globalization. Although these individual forces may be small relative to state governments or international institutions, or may operate on long time scales, the changes they catalyze can pose significant challenges to the analysis and practice of international relations through the operation of complex feedbacks and interactions of individual agents and interconnected systems. We call these challenges "femtorisks," and emphasize their importance for two reasons. First, in isolation, they may be inconsequential and semiautonomous; but when embedded in complex adaptive systems, characterized by individual agents able to change, learn from experience, and pursue their own agendas, the strategic interaction between actors can propel systems down paths of increasing, even global, instability. Second, because their influence stems from complex interactions at interfaces of multiple systems (e.g., social, financial, political, technological, ecological, etc.), femtorisks challenge standard approaches to risk assessment, as higher-order consequences cascade across the boundaries of socially constructed complex systems. We argue that new approaches to assessing and managing systemic risk in international relations are required, inspired by principles of evolutionary theory and development of resilient ecological systems.
The world today is increasingly confronted with systemic threats and challenges, in which femtorisks - small-scale dangers that are inherent to system structures and function and which pose asymmetrically catastrophic risks - can build in consequence, spreading uncontrollably like epidemics in both natural and social systems in such diverse areas as ecology, epidemiology, finance, the Internet, terrorism, and international relations. They have been successfully modeled in ecology in the context of complex adaptive systems: systems made up of individual agents, whose interactions have macroscopic consequences that feed back to influence individual behavior. While acknowledging challenges, this paper argues for the value of applying to societal systems the approaches that natural scientists have developed in quantifying and modeling biological interactions and ecosystems.
Logging data are measurements of physical properties of the formation surrounding a borehole, acquired in situ after completion of coring (wireline logging) or during drilling (Logging-While-Drilling, LWD). The range of data (resistivity, gamma radiation, velocity, density, borehole images,…) in any hole depends on the scientific objectives and operational constraints.
Logging data are measurements of physical properties of the formation surrounding a borehole, acquired in situ after completion of coring (wireline logging) or during drilling (Logging-While-Drilling, LWD). The range of data (resistivity, gamma radiation, velocity, density, borehole images,…) in any hole depends on the scientific objectives and operational constraints.
Logging data are measurements of physical properties of the formation surrounding a borehole, acquired in situ after completion of coring (wireline logging) or during drilling (Logging-While-Drilling, LWD). The range of data (resistivity, gamma radiation, velocity, density, borehole images,…) in any hole depends on the scientific objectives and operational constraints.
Logging data are measurements of physical properties of the formation surrounding a borehole, acquired in situ after completion of coring (wireline logging) or during drilling (Logging-While-Drilling, LWD). The range of data (resistivity, gamma radiation, velocity, density, borehole images,…) in any hole depends on the scientific objectives and operational constraints.
Logging data are measurements of physical properties of the formation surrounding a borehole, acquired in situ after completion of coring (wireline logging) or during drilling (Logging-While-Drilling, LWD). The range of data (resistivity, gamma radiation, velocity, density, borehole images,…) in any hole depends on the scientific objectives and operational constraints.
Logging data are measurements of physical properties of the formation surrounding a borehole, acquired in situ after completion of coring (wireline logging) or during drilling (Logging-While-Drilling, LWD). The range of data (resistivity, gamma radiation, velocity, density, borehole images,…) in any hole depends on the scientific objectives and operational constraints.
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