Philip Omondi

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center

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Joseph L. Awange

Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Ehsan Forootan

Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos

Gilbert Ouma

University of Nairobi

Laban Ogallo

University of Nairobi

Geoffrey Ogutu

Kenya Wildlife Service

Everline Komutunga

National Agricultural Research Organisation

Matthew Tom Harrison

University of Tasmania

Christopher Oludhe

University of Nairobi

Iwan Supit

Wageningen University & Research

Wietse Franssen

Wageningen University & Research

Cooperative Institutions

University of Nairobi

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center

National Institute of Meteorology

Kenya Wildlife Service

Wageningen University & Research

Uganda National Meteorological Authority

Curtin University

Maseno University

Cardiff University

University of Cape Town

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Understanding the decline of water storage across the Ramser-Lake Naivasha using satellite-based methods

Advances in Water Resources (2013)

Joseph L. Awange Ehsan Forootan Jürgen Kusche John Kiema Philip Omondi

Hydrometeorology

Water storage

10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.07.002

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Citations (65)

Decadal rainfall variability modes in observed rainfall records over East Africa and their relations to historical sea surface temperature changes

Journal of Hydrology (2012)

Philip Omondi Joseph L. Awange Laban Ogallo RE Okoola Ehsan Forootan

Canonical correlation

Predictability

Varimax rotation

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.07.003

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Citations (65)

Frequency and severity of drought in the Lake Victoria region (Kenya) and its effects on food security

Climate Research (2007)

Joseph L. Awange Joash Aluoch Laban Ogallo Monica A. Omulo Philip Omondi

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 33:135-142 (2007) - doi:10.3354/cr033135 Frequency and severity of drought in the Lake Victoria region (Kenya) and its effects on food security Joseph L. Awange1,*, June Aluoch2, Laban A. Ogallo3, Monica Omulo2, Philip Omondi3 1Department of Spatial Sciences, Division of Resources and Environment, Curtin University of Technology, GPO Box U1987, Perth, Western Australia 6845, Australia 2Department of Environment Sciences, Maseno University, PO Box 333, Maseno, Kenya 3IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), PO Box 10304 – 00100, Nairobi, Kenya *Email: j.awange@curtin.edu.au ABSTRACT: Using monthly and seasonal precipitation data for the period 1961–1999, we established drought frequency and severity in relation to food security in the Lake Victoria region in Kenya. We used percentiles together with time series analysis for a 40 yr period, with the lower 25% of the quartile designated as the threshold values that indicate drought years. We then used percentiles and Drought Severity Index (DSI) to ascertain the physical conditions and severity of the drought years. The 1980s and 1990s were drier decades (the 1980s had more drought events than any other decade considered in this study), with lower negative anomalies in comparison to the 1960s and 1970s, and the number of drought events and their severity have been increasing in recent years (especially during the 1990s). In general, drought affects the crop planting seasons of March to May (MAM) and September to November (SON), and leads to increased food imports in the years following the drought. If the present trends persist, the Lake Victoria region will face not only more severe drought events, but also significant reductions in food security. KEY WORDS: Lake Victoria · Food Security · Climate · Drought · Environment Full text in pdf format PreviousNextExport citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 33, No. 2. Online publication date: February 22, 2007 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2007 Inter-Research.

10.3354/cr033135

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Exploring smallholder farm resilience to climate change: intended and actual adaptation

Deleted Journal (2024)

J. Hussein Franco Bilotto Damaris Mbui Philip Omondi Matthew Tom Harrison

Low production potential of arid regions heightens vulnerability of farms to market shocks and extreme weather events. Here we examine African smallholder farmer perceptions of climate change, including perceived (intended) and actual adaptation strategies. We invoke survey questionnaires, focus group discussions, interviews and meteorological data to compare smallholder perceptions with actual weather events realised. We showed that most communities perceived climate change through the lens of perturbations to rainfall and temperature. Perceived increases in precipitation, indicated by 62% of respondents, and increased temperature, indicated by 77% of participants, aligned well with evidence shown by meteorological data. Around 88% of respondents identified prolonged drought as the most frequent extreme weather, followed by unseasonal rainfall (86% of respondents). Diversification of pasture fodder species and access to technology enabling timely weather forecasts were preferred actual and intended adaptation strategies, respectively. Recurrent and prolonged drought, spurious seasonal weather patterns, and lack of access to timely weather prognostics were the primary constraints to adoption of practices aimed at climate change adaptation. While farm size and practitioner experience were not associated with adaptive capacity, awareness of climate change impact potential and household income significantly influenced the rate and extent of adoption. We revealed a marked influence of gender in adaptation to the changing climate, with households where males made decisions exhibiting 76% adoption, compared with 34% of households adopting climate adaptations where decisions were made by females. Taken together, our study narrates critical roles of knowledge, finances, and gender in enabling or inhibiting adaptation to the climate crisis.

Resilience

Climate Change Adaptation

Climate Resilience

10.3389/past.2024.13424

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From crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somalia

Authorea (Authorea) (2023)

J. Hussein Franco Bilotto Carla Ferreira Ke Liu Philip Omondi

While the livelihoods of Somalian livestock smallholders are rely heavily on seasonal climate conditions, little is known of long-term implications of the changing climate for this nation. Here, we quantify climate change impacts on pasture productivity and profitability of livestock smallholders across a rainfall gradient in northwestern Somalia. Using the Sustainable Grazing Systems (SGS) model we explore 80 future climate realisations, with global climate models projections including low- and high-impact socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585), two climate horizons (2040 and 2080) and four case study farm regions. In general, future seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature relative to the baseline period (1981-2020) increased for most regions. Mean annual temperatures increased by 9-14%, while cumulative annual precipitation increased by 37-57% from mid to late century, respectively. Grassland production increased with later climate horizons, as higher average annual rainfall together with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide drove up growth rates in spring and autumn. Under the low emissions scenario (SSP245), changes in farm profit were modest or positive, ranging from negative 4% in Berbera to 20% in Sheikh. Under the higher emissions scenario (SSP585), farm profits were higher, ranging from 23% to 42% above baseline profits, largely due to greater pasture production and lower requirements for supplementary feed. We conclude that future climates will benefit the productivity and profitability of smallholder farmers in Somalia, although adaptive farm management will be required to cope with increased seasonal climate variability.

Baseline (sea)

10.22541/essoar.170048683.37870843/v1

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Potential impacts of climate and environmental change on the stored water of Lake Victoria Basin and economic implications

Water Resources Research (2013)

Joseph L. Awange Richard Anyah Nathaniel O. Agola Ehsan Forootan Philip Omondi

R e s e a r c h 4 9 (1 2) , p p. 8 1 6 0-8 1 7 3.

10.1002/2013wr014350

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Citations (97)

Linkages between global sea surface temperatures and decadal rainfall variability over Eastern Africa region

International Journal of Climatology (2012)

Philip Omondi Laban Ogallo Richard Anyah Nzioka John Muthama J M Ininda

Abstract Linkages between dominant spatio‐temporal decadal rainfall variability modes and the global sea surface temperature (SST) modes are investigated over East Africa region for the period 1950–2008. Singular value decomposition (SVD) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA) techniques are employed to examine potential linkages and predictability of decadal rainfall variability over the region. When the ten‐year periodicity is filtered out from the observed monthly rainfall data, distinct decadal rainfall regimes are exhibited in the time series of mean seasonal rainfall anomalies. Spectral density analysis of rainfall time series showed dominance of a ten‐year periodicity, significant at 95% confidence level. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) results yielded nine and seven homogeneous decadal rainfall zones for long rains; March–May (MAM), and the short rains: October–December (OND) seasons, respectively. The third season of June–August (JJA) which is mainly experienced in western and coastal sub‐regions had eight homogenous zones delineated. Results show that the leading three SVD‐coupled modes explain greater than 75% of the squared covariance between the two fields. The first SVD mode for Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans contributed to 50, 43 and 38% of the total square covariance for MAM season, respectively. The same mode accounted for 65, 48 and 40% for OND rainfall season, respectively. For the JJA season, mode one contributed to about 61, 39 and 42% of the variance. The study showed that forcing of decadal rainfall over the region is associated with El Niño mode that is prominent over the Pacific Ocean, while Indian Ocean dipole is the leading mode over the Indian Ocean basin. An inter‐hemispheric dipole mode that is common during ENSO was a prominent feature in the Atlantic Ocean forcing regional decadal rainfall. The high variability of these modes highlighted the significant roles of all the global oceans in forcing decadal rainfall variability over the region. In addition, results from multiple linear regression model showed substantial variation of the model prediction skill of the decadal rainfall variability modes within various homogenous zones and for different seasons. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Predictability

Forcing (mathematics)

Dominance (genetics)

Mode (computer interface)

Canonical correlation

Singular Spectrum Analysis

10.1002/joc.3578

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Citations (59)

Decadal Rainfall Variability Modes in observed Rainfall Records over East Africa and their Predictability using Sea Surface Temperature

Journal of meteorology and related sciences (2009)

Philip Omondi Laban Ogallo Raphael E. Okoola

The space-time patterns of decadal rainfall variability modes over East Africa and their predictability potentials using Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are investigated. The analysis includes observed rainfall data from 1920-2004 and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1950-2004. Simple correlation, trend and cyclical analyses, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) methods are employed. The results show decadal signals in filtered observed rainfall record with 10 years period during March – May (MAM) and October – December (OND) seasons. During June – August (JJA), however, cycles with 20 years period are common. Too much / little rainfall received in one or two years determines the general trend of the decadal mean rainfall. PCA results showed six, five and four modes of variability accounting for 80%, 81.3% and 65.1% during MAM, OND and JJA seasons respectively. CCA results for MAM showed significant positive correlations are observed between the sea surface temperatures and the canonical component time series over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Positive loadings are spread over the coastal and Lake Victoria regions while negative loadings over the rest of the region with significant canonical correlation skills. For the June – August season, Atlantic SSTs had negative loadings centred on the tropical western Atlantic Ocean associated with the wet / dry regimes over western/eastern sectors. The highest canonical correlation skill between OND rainfall and the Pacific SSTs showed that ENSO/La Nina phases are associated with wet/dry decades over the region.

Predictability

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Regional climate model performance and prediction of seasonal rainfall and surface temperature of Uganda.

African Crop Science Journal (2012)

C. Nandozi J. G. M. Majaliwa Philip Omondi Everline Komutunga L. Aribo

Knowledge about future climate provides valuable insights into how the challenges posed by climate change and variability can be addressed. This study assessed the skill of the United Kingdom (UK) Regional Climate Model (RCM) PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) in simulating rainfall and temperature over Uganda and also assess future impacts of climate when forced by an ensemble of two Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the period 2070-2100. Results show that the models captured fairly well the large scale flow signals influencing rainfall and temperature patterns over Uganda. Rainfall and temperature patterns were better resolved by the RCM than the GCMs. The rainfall and temperature patterns differed among the three seasons. Rainy season March to May (MAM) is likely to experience increment in both surface temperature (0.9 o C) and rainfall (0.2 mm day -1 ). For September to October (SON) rainy season, an opposite trend in the two climate parameters, temperature and rainfall, will be registered with the former increasing by 0.9 o C and the latter dropping by 0.7 mm day -1 . For the dry season, June to August (JJA), both temperature and rainfall are projected to decrease by 0.3 o C and 0.4 mm day -1 , respectively.

Wet season

Dry season

Maximum temperature

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Changes in Rainfall and Surface Temperature Over Lower Jubba, Somalia

Journal of Climate Change and Sustainability (2017)

Linda Ajuang Ogallo Gilbert Ouma Philip Omondi

10.20987/jccs.1.08.2017

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Citations (9)