To examine the secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality and to estimate the proportion of thyroid cancer cases potentially attributable to overdiagnosis.Data on thyroid cancer cases from 1973 to 2015 were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer Registry. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was evaluated using the joinpoint regression analysis. The age, period, and birth cohort effects were assessed using an age-period-cohort model. The overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer cases was estimated based on the difference between observed and expected incidences using the rates of Nordic countries as reference.From 1973 to 2015, the number of thyroid cancer cases was 23 117, and 75% of the patients were women. The age-standardized rates were seven- to eightfold higher from 2013 to 2015 than from 1973 to 1977. Compared with relatively stable mortality, thyroid cancer incidence was dramatically increased from 2002 to 2015 in both sexes, with significant trends (men: AAPC = 21.84%, 95% CI: 18.77%-24.98%, P < .001; women: AAPC = 18.55%, 95% CI: 16.49%-20.64%, P < .001). The proportion of overdiagnosis has gradually increased over time, rising from 68% between 2003 and 2007 to more than 90% between 2013 and 2015. This increasing trend appeared to be similar between men and women.An increasing gap between thyroid cancer incidence and mortality was observed in Shanghai, and overdiagnosis has contributed substantially to the rise of incidence, which calls for an urgent update on the practice of thyroid examination.
There is tremendous interest in the development of liquid biopsy techniques, but the potential role of liquid biopsy for the early detection of cancer has not yet been elucidated. We aim to explore the performance of liquid biopsy in the early diagnosis of cancer.A systematic review was conducted of liquid biopsy in cancer early detection. Meta-regression was carried out to explore the source of heterogeneity and publication bias was also evaluated.Overall, there were six types of biomarkers and 17 studies focusing on liquid biopsy in the early detection of cancer, 7 studies in ctDNA, 5 studies in cfDNA, 2 studies in CTC, and the other three studies used circulating nucleosome, microRNA, and multiple biomarkers, respectively. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of liquid biopsy in cancer early detection was 0.76 (95%CI:0.67-0.83) and 0.92 (95%CI:0.86-0.96) and the area under the SROC curve was 0.91 (95%CI:0.88-0.93).The current evidence shows that liquid biopsy has relatively low sensitivity and high specificity in cancer early detection. Among all these biomarkers, cfDNA may have potentially promising value in cancer early detection, thereby supporting further study of cancer early detection.The study is registered at PROSPERO (Identifier number: CRD42020137205).
Lung cancer is the tumor with the highest morbidity and mortality, and has become a global public health problem. The incidence of lung cancer in men has declined in some countries and regions, while the incidence of lung cancer in women has been slowly increasing. Therefore, the aim is to explore whether estrogen-related genes are associated with the incidence and prognosis of lung cancer.We obtained all estrogen receptor genes and estrogen signaling pathway genes in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), and then compared the expression of each gene in tumor tissues and adjacent normal tissues for lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) and lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) separately. Survival analysis was performed of the differentially expressed genes in LUAD and LUSC patients separately. The diagnostic and prognostic values of the candidate genes were validated in the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) datasets.We found 5 estrogen receptor genes and 66 estrogen pathway genes in TCGA. A total of 50 genes were differently expressed between tumor tissues and adjacent normal tissues and 6 of the 50 genes were related to the prognosis of LUAD in TCGA. 56 genes were differently expressed between tumor tissues and adjacent normal tissues and none of the 56 genes was related to the prognosis of LUSC in TCGA. GEO datasets validated that the 6 genes (SHC1, FKBP4, NRAS, PRKCD, KRAS, ADCY9) had different expression between tumor tissues and adjacent normal tissues in LUAD, and 3 genes (FKBP4, KRAS, ADCY9) were related to the prognosis of LUAD.The expressions of FKBP4 and ADCY9 are related to the pathogenesis and prognosis of LUAD. FKBP4 and ADCY9 may serve as biomarkers in LUAD screening and prognosis prediction in clinical settings.
Abstract Background Many previous studies reported secular trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality, but little is known about the possible reasons for these trends. Methods Data were obtained from Shanghai Cancer Registry. Age‐standardized rates were calculated and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) were evaluated by Joinpoint regression. Age, period, and birth cohort effects were assessed by age‐period‐cohort models. Results From 1973 to 2010, compared with long‐time slowly increasing trend in women, male lung cancer incidence had significantly decreased between 2001 and 2009. After that lung cancer incidence rising sharply in women (AAPC = 14.13%, 95%CI: 2.68%‐26.86%, P = .016) and similar rising trends without statistical significance in men (AAPC = 2.96, 95%CI: −2.47%‐8.69%, P = .281) between 2010 and 2014. Age‐period cohort model showed the different patterns of period effects for lung cancer incidence between men and women. The period effects for lung cancer incidence showed rising effect for women, whereas there was decline effect for lung cancer incidence for men. On the other hand, the model showed a significant period effect in both genders with a similar fashion in mortality, yielding steady falling trends during the entire study period. Conclusions The distinctive patterns of lung cancer incidence between men and women may be attributable to significant period effects, which reflected the changes in public health policies or diagnostic practices and highlighted the urgent of continued monitoring of gender‐specific risk factors for lung cancer incidence.
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