Daniel Santabárbara

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Is China Climbing Up the Quality Ladder? Estimating Cross Country Differences in Product Quality Using Eurostat's COMEXT Trade Database

SSRN Electronic Journal (2011)

Gábor Pula Daniel Santabárbara

There is an ongoing debate in the literature about the quality content of Chinese exports and to what extent China imposes a threat to the market positions of advanced economies. While China's export structure is very similar to that of the advanced world, its export unit values are well below the level of developed economies. Building on the assumption that unit values reflect quality the prevailing view of the literature is that China exports low quality varieties of the same products than its advanced competitors. This paper challenges this view by relaxing the assumption that unit values reflect quality. We derive the quality of Chinese exports to the European Union by estimating disaggregated demand functions from a discrete choice model. The paper has two major findings. First, China's share on the European Union market is larger than would be justified by its relatively low average prices, implying that the quality of Chinese export products is relatively high compared to many competitors. Second, China has gained quality relative to other competitors since 1995, indicating that China is climbing up the quality ladder. The relatively high and improving quality of China's exports may be explained by the increasing role of global production networks in China.

10.2139/ssrn.1773214

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Una valoracion de la reforma del sistema bancario de China

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (2009)

Alicia Garcı́a-Herrero Daniel Santabárbara

No es extrano que una de las mayores y mas dinamicas economias del mundo tenga un sistema financiero que tambien lo sea. Los autores pasan revista a la evolucion del mismo haciendo hincapie en su aspecto cualitativo, concretamente en las reformas emprendidas para la modernizacion del sistema. Se estructuran las reformas recientes en tres bloques: reestructuracion bancaria, liberalizacion financiera y mejora de la regulacion y supervision bancarias. Aunque ya se han apreciado mejoras en cuanto a la calidad de los activos o la supervision, en el articulo se concluye que todavia falta un largo trecho, sobre todo, en cuanto a la excesiva intervencion estatal y debil gobierno corporativo; y la crisis financiera mundial, que no precisamente china, ha dejado el proceso de reformas en aparente stand-by.

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Recycling Carbon Tax Revenues in Spain. Environmental and Economic Assessment of Selected Green Reforms

SSRN Electronic Journal (2021)

Ángel Estrada Daniel Santabárbara

The design of the key elements of a public budget-neutral environmental fiscal reform could have very different implications in terms of its environmental and macroeconomic impact. Our proposals rely on a carbon tax on fossil fuels covering all economic sectors. It would be a powerful and efficient instrument for reducing emissions, as it gives economic agents an incentive to find ways to save energy and switch to greener energy sources while generating significant tax revenues whose judicious use may have positive macroeconomic effects. In addition, a carbon tax is easy to administer since it can be integrated into existing fuel excise duties. We build a novel model to assess the environmental and economic impact of a set of environmental fiscal reforms in Spain which are defined by different levels of the carbon tax, the possibility of a border carbon adjustment and alternative uses of the tax revenues generated. In this framework, we incorporate technological innovation, which will allow firms to produce with non-polluting inputs and, specifically, the electricity sector, to increase the role of renewables in its generation mix. The results indicate that carbon tax designs with border carbon adjustment tend to be more effective in lowering emissions in Spain. They also suggest that an appropriately designed environmental fiscal reform may even boost economic activity in the medium term if the revenues are used to reduce other, more distorting taxes.

Carbon tax

Environmental tax

10.2139/ssrn.3846013

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Awareness of pandemics and the impact of COVID-19

Economics Letters (2021)

Alejandro Buesa Javier J. Pérez Daniel Santabárbara

Pandemic

Proxy (statistics)

2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109892

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Climate Change and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

SSRN Electronic Journal (2021)

Francesco Maria Drudi Emanuel Moench Cornelia Holthausen Pierre-François Weber Gianluigi Ferrucci

Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Add Paper to My Library Share: Permalink Using these links will ensure access to this page indefinitely Copy URL Copy DOI

10.2139/ssrn.3928292

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Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (2021)

Francesco Drudi Emanuel Moench Cornelia Holthausen Pierre-François Weber Gianluigi Ferrucci

This paper analyses the implications of climate change for the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area. It first investigates macroeconomic and financial risks stemming from climate change and from policies aimed at climate mitigation and adaptation, as well as the regulatory and fiscal effects of reducing carbon emissions. In this context, it assesses the need to adapt macroeconomic models and the Eurosystem/ECB staff economic projections underlying the monetary policy decisions. It further considers the implications of climate change for the conduct of monetary policy, in particular the implications for the transmission of monetary policy, the natural rate of interest and the correct identification of shocks. Model simulations using the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) illustrate how the interactions of climate change, financial and fiscal fragilities could significantly restrict the ability of monetary policy to respond to standard business cycle fluctuations. The paper concludes with an analysis of a set of potential monetary policy measures to address climate risks, insofar as they are in line with the ECB’s mandate. JEL Classification: E52, E58, Q54

Mandate

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Les risques du système bancaire chinois après le plan de relance de 2008-2010 et le boom de l'immobilier

Revue d économie financière (2011)

Alicia Garcı́a-Herrero Daniel Santabárbara

Le système bancaire chinois a réalisé de très bonnes performances ces dernières années, en comparaison de ses homologues de l’Ouest mais aussi de sa propre situation dans un récent passé. Les améliorations en termes de taille et de rentabilité sont la conséquence de sa restructuration par l’État, grâce à la recapitalisation gouvernementale et à l’épuration des créances douteuses. De plus, l’important plan de relance lancé par la Chine pendant la crise financière mondiale a permis aux banques de se développer en augmentant considérablement leurs volumes de prêts. Nombre de ces prêts se sont concentrés sur les structures de financement des gouvernements provinciaux, dont les revenus dépendent directement des prix de la terre et de l’immobilier en général. Étant donnée l’explosion des prix de l’immobilier en Chine, les autorités sont amenées à prendre des mesures strictes pour réduire le volume de crédits accordés (spécialement aux gouvernements provinciaux) et faire baisser les prix de la terre et de l’immobilier. Ces mesures pourraient remettre en question la solvabilité future des structures de financement des gouvernements provinciaux, avec toutes les conséquences négatives que cela pourrait entraîner pour le système bancaire chinois. Classification JEL : G21, 053, P25, P34.

10.3917/ecofi.102.0057

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The potential global effects and transmission channels of a slowdown in Chinese growth

Economic Bulletin (2023)

Irma Alonso Daniel Santabárbara Marta Suárez-Varela

Rationale Having picked up following the end of the zero-COVID policy, Chinese economic activity is now slowing. This comes against a backdrop of, inter alia, increased uncertainty related to difficulties in the domestic real estate sector. This article examines and quantifies the different channels through which a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy could affect activity and inflation levels in the world’s major economies. Takeaways •A growth slowdown in China, partly linked to problems in its real estate sector, could pose a downside risk to activity levels in the world’s major economies. •This impact would be felt, with varying intensity, through various channels: trade, commodities and international financial markets. •In the euro area, a temporary slowdown in Chinese economic activity of 1 percentage point (pp) would reduce GDP growth by 0.1 pp in the first year, while lowering inflation by 0.4 pp.

Slowdown

Chinese economy

10.53479/35632

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Growth beyond imbalances. Sustainable growth rates and output gap reassessment

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (2013)

Enrique Alberola Ángel Estrada Daniel Santabárbara

‘The Great Recession’ was preceded by a prolonged period of high growth accompanied by low and stable inflation, the so called ‘Great Moderation’. During that period, potential growth estimates were trending upwards and output gaps remained small. However, other imbalances were progressively accumulating, eventually bringing about the worst crisis in decades. Standard potential growth estimates, which consider inflation as the only indicator of macroeconomic imbalances, along with the stability of inflation in that period, therefore provided misleading signals to policymakers. This paper introduces a methodology to obtain sustainable growth rates, as an alternative measure to potential growth. Sustainable growth is defined as the output growth that does not generate or widen macroeconomic imbalances, identified through a wide set of domestic and external indicators. This allow us to reassess the behavior of output gaps in the US, the UK, Spain, Germany and China both in ‘the Great Moderation’ period and during ‘the Great Recession’. In countries with large imbalances, sustainable growth rates are more stable than potential growth resulting in output gaps that were substantially larger in the period prior to the crisis.

Potential output

Great Moderation

Output gap

Great recession

Sustainable Growth Rate

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Les Risques Du Système Bancaire Chinois Après Le Plan De Relance De 2008-2010 Et Le Boom De L’Immobilier (The Risks of the Chinese Banking System After the 2008-2010 Recovery Plan and the Real Estate Boom)

SSRN Electronic Journal (2011)

Alicia Garcı́a-Herrero Daniel Santabárbara

French Abstract: Le systeme bancaire chinois s'est tres bien comporte ces dernieres annees, a la fois par rapport a ses homologues occidentaux mais aussi par rapport a sa propre situation il y a seulement quelques annees. L'amelioration en termes de taille et de rentabilite resulte de la restructuration gouvernementale du systeme bancaire basee sur la capitalisation gouvernementale et le nettoyage des creances douteuses. En outre, le paquet fiscal massif introduit par la Chine pendant la crise mondiale a permis aux banques de croitre en augmentant massivement leurs prets. Ces prets se sont concentres sur les gouvernements locaux? les vehicules de financement, dont les revenus sont tres dependants des prix de la terre et du logement en general. Compte tenu de la surchauffe de la Chine et de la hausse trop rapide des prix de l'immobilier, les autorites prennent des mesures strictes pour reduire l'offre de credit (en particulier aux collectivites locales) ainsi que les prix du logement et des terrains. Ces deux mesures pourraient mettre en peril la solvabilite future des entreprises de financement des collectivites locales, avec les consequences negatives que cela pourrait avoir sur le systeme bancaire chinois. English Abstract: China's banking system has performed extremely well during the last few years both compared with its peers in the West but also with its own situation only a few years ago. The improvement in terms of size and profitability comes as a consequence of government restructuring of the banking system based on governmental capitalization and clean-up of bad loans. In addition, the massive fiscal package introduced by China during the global crisis has allowed banks to grow by increasing their lending massively. Such lending has concentrated on local governments? financing vehicles, whose revenues are very dependent on the prices of land and housing in general. Given China's overheating and too fast increase in housing prices, the authorities are taking strict measures to reduce the supply of credit (especially to local governments) and also housing and land prices. Both measures may put the future solvency of local government financing companies at risk, with the negative consequences which this may have on the Chinese banking system.

Capitalization

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