SUMMARY During recent years the field of earthquake loss modelling has developed rapidly, driven by the needs of both governments and the insurance industry to be able to estimate likely losses from future seismic events. Particular impetus for this process was provided by the 1994 Northridge and 1995 Kobe earthquakes, both of which caused unprecedented economic losses, the former particularly affecting the insurance industry, and the 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes which placed an enormous financial burden on the Turkish government. The mostly widely used models are those developed as proprietary software packages by commercial catastrophe modelling firms. A common characteristic amongst the majority of commercial loss models is that the details of their inner workings are not revealed to the user, who often will not know even which methodological approach is being used to calculate the losses, much less how earthquake scenarios are being modelled, which ground-motion parameters are being predicted, and how the vulnerability of the exposed building stock is being defined. Moreover, the user is not informed of the underlying assumptions in the model and how uncertainties in each of the input parameters is represented in the calculations and hence in the output. The use of such ‘black boxes’ thus requires uncritical acceptance of the output and this does not allow informed decision making. The publication of transparent approaches to loss modelling such as HAZUS and the growth of openly published academic research in the field of earthquake loss estimation, which includes studies demonstrating the sensitivity of the results to the adopted method and the uncertainties associated with the input parameters, make it increasingly anachronistic to continue the practice of distributing ‘black box’ models. In this paper the case is presented for transparency and for the
The increasing availability of strong-motion accelerograms, and the relative ease with which they can be obtained compared to synthetic or artificial records, makes the use of real records an ever more attractive option for defining the input to dynamic analyses in geotechnical and structural engineering. Guidelines on procedures for the selection of appropriate suites of acceleration time-series for this purpose are lacking, and seismic design codes are particularly poor in this respect. Criteria for selecting records in terms of earthquake scenarios and in terms of response spectral ordinates are presented, together with options and criteria for adjusting the selected accelerograms to match the elastic design spectrum. The application of both geophysical and response spectral search criteria is illustrated using compatible scenarios, and the selected records are analysed and adjusted to produce suites of acceleration time-series suitable for dynamic analyses. The paper concludes with suggestions for making use of real records in engineering analysis and design, and recommendations are given for improving the current guidelines provided in seismic design codes.
ABSTRACT Hydraulic fracturing of the first shale gas well at Preston New Road (PNR), Blackpool, United Kingdom, in late 2018, marked the end of a 7 yr United Kingdom-wide moratorium on fracking. Despite a strict traffic-light system being in place, seismic events up to ML 2.9 were induced. The ML 2.9 event was accompanied by reports of damage and was assigned European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) intensity VI by the British Geological Survey. The moratorium was subsequently reinstated in late 2019. The study here presents a pseudo-probabilistic seismic risk analysis and is applied to the larger of the induced events at PNR, in addition to hypothetical larger events. Initially, site characterization analysis is undertaken using direct and indirect methods. These analyses show low-velocity deposits dominate the region (VS30‾=227 m/s). We test existing ground-motion prediction equations using spatially dependent VS30 to determine applicability to the recorded waveform data and produce a referenced empirical model. Predicting median and 84th percentile peak ground velocity fields, we subsequently determine macroseismic intensities. Epicentral intensities of IV, IV–V, and VI–VII are predicted for the observed ML 2.9, and hypothetical ML 3.5 and 4.5 scenarios, respectively. A probabilistic analysis of damage is performed for 3500 ground-motion realizations (2.1≤ML≤4.5) using the OpenQuake-engine, with nonlinear dynamic analysis undertaken to define building fragility. Based on these analyses, the onset of cosmetic damage (DS1) in terms of median risk is observed for the ML 2.9 event. Mean modeled occurrences of DS1 and DS2 (minor structural damage), 75 and 10 instances, respectively, are consistent with reported damage (DS1:97, DS2:50). Significant occurrences (median≥30 buildings) of DS2, DS3, and DS4 (minor to major structural damage) are likely for ML 3.5, 4.0, and 4.5 events, respectively. However, by comparing reported damage with modeled damage due to the ML 2.9 event and considering the fact that low macroseismic intensities (EMS-98 <4) are often not reported by the public, we conclude that the previously assigned intensity of VI is too high, with V being more appropriate.
Logic trees have become a popular tool in seismic hazard studies. Commonly, the models corresponding to the end branches of the complete logic tree in a probabalistic seismic hazard analysis (psha) are treated separately until the final calculation of the set of hazard curves. This comes at the price that information regarding sensitivities and uncertainties in the ground-motion sections of the logic tree are only obtainable after disaggregation. Furthermore, from this end-branch model perspective even the designers of the logic tree cannot directly tell what ground-motion scenarios most likely would result from their logic trees for a given earthquake at a particular distance, nor how uncertain these scenarios might be or how they would be affected by the choices of the hazard analyst. On the other hand, all this information is already implicitly present in the logic tree. Therefore, with the ground-motion perspective that we propose in the present article, we treat the ground-motion sections of a complete logic tree for seismic hazard as a single composite model representing the complete state-of-knowledge-and-belief of a particular analyst on ground motion in a particular target region. We implement this view by resampling the ground-motion models represented in the ground-motion sections of the logic tree by Monte Carlo simulation (separately for the median values and the sigma values) and then recombining the sets of simulated values in proportion to their logic-tree branch weights. The quantiles of this resampled composite model provide the hazard analyst and the decision maker with a simple, clear, and quantitative representation of the overall physical meaning of the ground-motion section of a logic tree and the accompanying epistemic uncertainty. Quantiles of the composite model also provide an easy way to analyze the sensitivities and uncertainties related to a given logic-tree model. We illustrate this for a composite ground-motion model for central Europe. Further potential fields of applications are seen wherever individual best estimates of ground motion have to be derived from a set of candidate models, for example, for hazard maps, sensitivity studies, or for modeling scenario earthquakes.
The backbone approach to constructing a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can address shortcomings in the traditional approach of populating the branches with multiple existing, or potentially modified, ground-motion models (GMMs) by rendering more transparent the relationship between branch weights and the resulting distribution of predicted accelerations. To capture epistemic uncertainty in a tractable manner, there are benefits in building the logic tree through the application of successive adjustments for differences in source, path, and site characteristics between the host region of the selected backbone GMM and the target region for which the PSHA is being conducted. The implementation of this approach is facilitated by selecting a backbone GMM that is amenable to such host-to-target adjustments for individual source, path, and site characteristics. The NGA-West2 GMM of Chiou and Youngs (CY14) has been identified as a highly adaptable model for crustal seismicity that is well suited to such adjustments. Rather than using generic source, path, and site characteristics assumed appropriate for the host region, the final suite of adjusted GMMs for the target region will be better constrained if the host-region parameters are defined specifically on the basis of their compatibility with the CY14 backbone GMM. To this end, making use of a recently developed crustal shear-wave velocity profile consistent with CY14, we present an inversion of the model to estimate the key source and path parameters, namely the stress parameter and the anelastic attenuation. With these outputs, the effort in constructing a ground-motion logic tree for any PSHA dealing with crustal seismicity can be focused primarily on the estimation of the target-region characteristics and their associated uncertainties. The inversion procedure can also be adapted for any application in which different constraints might be relevant.
The pyroclastic deposits, known as Tierra Blanca Joven, underlie most of metropolitan San Salvador and other areas surrounding Lake Ilopango. The Tierra Blanca Joven deposits are products of a complex sequence of pyroclastic flows and falls that occurred during the A.D. 430 eruption of Ilopango Caldera. Very fine, compact white ash-lapilli predominates in both flow and fall units. Laboratory tests carried out on high-quality, undisturbed Tierra Blanca Joven samples show negative pore-water pressures and weak cementation. They also reveal how the strength and compressibility of these sediments can change significantly when the suction and bonding are lost upon soaking or...
A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been conducted for a potential nuclear power plant site on the coast of South Africa, a country of low-to-moderate seismicity. The hazard study was conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 process, the first application of this approach outside North America. Extensive geological investigations identified five fault sources with a non-zero probability of being seismogenic. Five area sources were defined for distributed seismicity, the least active being the host zone for which the low recurrence rates for earthquakes were substantiated through investigations of historical seismicity. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations were adjusted to a horizon within the bedrock at the site using kappa values inferred from weak-motion analyses. These adjusted models were then scaled to create new equations capturing the range of epistemic uncertainty in this region with no strong motion recordings. Surface motions were obtained by convolving the bedrock motions with site amplification functions calculated using measured shear-wave velocity profiles.
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