François Díaz

Instituto de Investigación Biomédica de Málaga

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Garry Peterson

Stockholm University

Rubén Bernardo‐Madrid

Estación Biológica de Doñana

Chunlong Liu

Ocean University of China

Wojciech Solarz

Polish Academy of Sciences

Cristian Pérez‐Granados

University of Alicante

Teresa Pastor

Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid

Tim Adriaens

Research Institute for Nature and Forest

Pablo González‐Moreno

University of Córdoba

Lluı́s Brotons

Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications

Uwe Starfinger

Julius Kühn-Institut

Cooperative Institutions

Instituto de Salud Carlos III

Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red

Spanish Biomedical Research Centre in Physiopathology of Obesity and Nutrition

Organisation Mondiale de la Santé Animale

Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública

Universidad de Navarra

Universidad de Granada

Universitat Jaume I

Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria

University of California, Davis

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Urgent Needs for Global Wildlife Health

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2020)

Catherine Machalaba Marcela Uhart Richard Kock François Díaz William B. Karesh

10.5281/zenodo.4105126

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Citations (2)

The International Response to Animal Health and Climate Change

CRC Press eBooks (2022)

Maud Carron Tianna Brand Sophie Muset Keith Hamilton Chadia Wannous

Climate change impacts animal health in different ways, altering broad health determinants such as habitats, water and feed accessibility, but also animal disease epidemiology. Climate variations are shifting global needs in terms of animal health management and support, calling for international animal health organizations to adapt their strategies and interventions to support national Veterinary Services. The present chapter presents how leading international organizations in animal health mainstream climate change response into their strategic orientations and activities, as well as existing gaps and future avenues, for a more robust response to climate change. Global One Health collaboration and governance from animal health support greater integration of environmental considerations into animal health activities at international and country levels. However, Veterinary Services' preparedness and involvement in climate change response remain limited. Current OIE and FAO's core activities to improve animal health and health systems' strengthening positively contribute to climate change response, while support developed for emergency preparedness and disease surveillance call for further consideration of socio-climatic factors and other broader determinants of health to improve animal health intelligence and disease management. Robustness in mechanisms to support a two-way dialogue between animal health and climate organizations is needed at multiple levels to ensure that animal health becomes a central component in addressing climate change. Synergies between animal health activities in the domains of livestock, wildlife, conservation, and sustainable agriculture still need to be harnessed further by international agencies to better support Veterinary Services in filling a leadership gap at the intersection of animal, ecosystem, and human health, and bolster the impact of current climate change response.

One Health

Preparedness

Animal health

International Health Regulations

Global Health

10.1201/9781003149774-11

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European scenarios for future biological invasions

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (2022)

Cristian Pérez‐Granados Bernd Lenzner Marina Golivets Wolf‐Christian Saul Jonathan M. Jeschke

Abstract Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature’s contribution to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales. Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs). We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios. We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives. Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent, but complementary, scenarios focused on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we presented and implemented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change including biological invasions.

Global Change

Temporal scales

10.1101/2022.09.13.507777

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Citations (1)

A scenario‐guided strategy for the future management of biological invasions

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment (2024)

Núria Roura‐Pascual Wolf‐Christian Saul Cristian Pérez‐Granados Lucas Rutting Garry Peterson

Future dynamics of biological invasions are highly uncertain because they depend on multiple social–ecological drivers. We used a scenario‐based approach to explore potential management options for invasive species in Europe. During two workshops involving a multidisciplinary team of experts, we developed a management strategy arranged into 19 goals relating to policy, research, public awareness, and biosecurity. We conceived solutions for achieving these goals under different plausible future scenarios, and identified four interrelated recommendations around which any long‐term strategy for managing invasive species can be structured: (1) a European biosecurity regime, (2) a dedicated communication strategy, (3) data standardization and management tools, and (4) a monitoring and assessment system. Finally, we assessed the feasibility of the management strategy and found substantial differences among scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate that it is time for a new strategy for managing biological invasions in Europe, one that is based on a more integrative approach across socioeconomic sectors and countries.

Biosecurity

10.1002/fee.2725

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Citations (5)

Sensitivity of an international notification system for wildlife diseases: A case study using the OIE‐WAHIS data on tularemia

Zoonoses and Public Health (2022)

Angela Fanelli Lina Awada Paula Caceres‐Soto François Díaz Tiggy Grillo

Abstract The World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) has recently developed a Wildlife Health Framework to respond to the need of members to manage the risk from emerging diseases at the animal–human–ecosystem interface. One of its objectives is to improve surveillance systems, early detection and notification of wildlife diseases. Members share information on disease occurrence by reporting through the OIE World Animal Health Information System (OIE‐WAHIS—formerly known as ‘WAHIS’). To evaluate the capacity of a surveillance system to detect disease events, it is important to quantify the gap between all known events and those officially notified to the OIE. This study used capture–recapture analysis to estimate the sensitivity of the OIE‐WAHIS system for a OIE‐listed wildlife disease by comparing information from publicly available sources to identify undetected events. This article presents a case study of the occurrence of tularemia in lagomorphs among selected North American and European countries during the period 2014–2019. First, an analysis using three data sources (OIE‐WAHIS, ProMED, WHO‐EIOS [Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources]) was conducted. Subsequent analysis then explored the model integrating information from a fourth source (scientific literature collected in PubMed). Two models were built to evaluate both the sensitivity of the OIE‐WAHIS using media reports (ProMED and WHO‐EIOS), which is likely to represent current closer to real‐time events, and published scientific data, which is more useful for retrospective analysis. Using the three‐source approach, the predicted number of tularemia events was 93 (95% CI: 75–114), with an OIE‐WAHIS sensitivity of 90%. In the four‐source approach, the number of predicted events increased to 120 (95% CI: 99–143), dropping the sensitivity of the OIE‐WAHIS to 70%. The results indicate a good sensitivity of the OIE‐WAHIS system using the three‐source approach, but lower sensitivity when including information from the scientific literature. Further analysis should be undertaken to identify diseases and regions for which international reporting presents a low sensitivity. This will enable evaluation and prioritization of underreported OIE‐listed wildlife diseases and identify areas of focus as part of the Wildlife Health Framework. This study also highlights the need for stronger collaborations between academia and National Veterinary Services to enhance surveillance systems for notifiable diseases.

Animal health

Wildlife disease

Disease Surveillance

10.1111/zph.12916

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Citations (13)

Impact of mediterranean diet promotion on environmental sustainability: a longitudinal analysis

Laura Álvarez‐Álvarez Facundo Vitelli‐Storelli María Rubín‐García Silvia García Cristina Bouzas

Objective This article aims to estimate the differences in environmental impact (greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions, land use, energy used, acidification and potential eutrophication) after one year of promoting a Mediterranean diet (MD). Methods Baseline and 1-year follow-up data from 5800 participants in the PREDIMED-Plus study were used. Each participant's food intake was estimated using validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaires, and the adherence to MD using the Dietary Score. The influence of diet on environmental impact was assessed through the EAT-Lancet Commission tables. The influence of diet on environmental impact was assessed through the EAT-Lancet Commission tables. The association between MD adherence and its environmental impact was calculated using adjusted multivariate linear regression models. Results After one year of intervention, the kcal/day consumed was significantly reduced (−125,1 kcal/day), adherence to a MD pattern was improved (+0,9) and the environmental impact due to the diet was significantly reduced (GHG: −361 g/CO2-eq; Acidification:-11,5 g SO2-eq; Eutrophication:-4,7 g PO4-eq; Energy use:-842,7 kJ; and Land use:-2,2 m2). Higher adherence to MD (high vs. low) was significantly associated with lower environmental impact both at baseline and one year follow-up. Meat products had the greatest environmental impact in all the factors analysed, both at baseline and at one-year follow-up, in spite of the reduction observed in their consumption. Conclusions A program promoting a MD, after one year of intervention, significantly reduced the environmental impact in all the factors analysed. Meat products had the greatest environmental impact in all the dimensions analysed.

Promotion (chess)

10.32920/26528053

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Citations (0)

European scenarios for future biological invasions

People and Nature (2023)

Cristian Pérez‐Granados Bernd Lenzner Marina Golivets Wolf‐Christian Saul Jonathan M. Jeschke

Abstract Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature's contributions to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales. Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy‐relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio‐economic and socio‐cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur‐ASNs). We compared the Eur‐ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global‐ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale‐dependent differences across scenarios. We also compared the Global‐ and Eur‐ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio‐economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives. Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent but complementary scenarios focussed on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we implemented and presented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change, including biological invasions. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Global Change

Temporal scales

10.1002/pan3.10567

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Citations (5)

A scenario-guided strategy for the future management of biological invasions

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (2022)

Núria Roura‐Pascual Wolf‐Christian Saul Cristian Pérez‐Granados Lucas Rutting Garry Peterson

Abstract Future dynamics of biological invasions are highly uncertain because they depend on multiple environmental, societal and socio-economic drivers. We adopted a qualitative scenario approach to explore the future of invasive alien species (IAS) in Europe and created an overall strategy for their management that considers different plausible future developments. The scenarios and strategy were developed during two online workshops with a multidisciplinary team of experts. First, we downscaled four global scenarios of biological invasions to the European level. Second, we developed a management strategy structured into 19 goals that cover a broad array of IAS-related topics (i.e. policy, research, public awareness and biosecurity), and provided solutions for achieving these goals considering the European scenarios. Third, we identified four interrelated recommendations around which any long-term strategy for managing IAS in Europe can be structured: (i) a European biosecurity regime, (ii) a dedicated communication strategy, (iii) data standardization and management tools, and (iv) a monitoring and assessment system. Finally, we identified the feasibility of the IAS management strategy, finding strong differences among the four scenarios. High levels of technological development, public environmental awareness, and effectiveness of IAS policies facilitated the implementation of the overall management strategy. Together, our results indicate that it is time for a new management of biological invasions in Europe based on a more integrative perspective across sectors and countries to be better prepared for future challenges.

Biosecurity

10.1101/2022.09.07.506838

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Citations (3)

Guidelines for addressing disease risks in wildlife trade

One Health (2025)

William B. Karesh Tiggy Grillo Catherine Machalaba Helen Roberts François Díaz

Wildlife trade

Wildlife disease

10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.100998

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Citations (0)

Theory of Change for Building Stronger Wildlife Health Surveillance Systems Globally

Liz P. Noguera Z.Carrie V. Kappel Jonathan M. Sleeman Marcela Uhart François Díaz

Background Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases that infect wildlife, such as African swine fever, avian influenza, and SARS-CoV-2, have highlighted the necessity for wildlife health surveillance (WHS) due to their direct and indirect impacts on wildlife species, ecosystems, domestic animals, and human health. While global policies and guidelines exist, a critical gap remains in local-to-national implementation of WHS systems. A group of local, national, and global actors in WHS have formed a working group to address this gap. Methods and Findings The working group reports on a theory of change (ToC) developed to implement WHS from local to global scales. Through brainstorming, plenary exercise, and building on peer-reviewed science and existing surveillance systems, we identified six transformative pathways to be implemented via collaborations across scales and contexts: mindset change, policy and investment, user-driven science, user-driven technologies, capacity enhancement, and mobilization of a global community of practice. Interpretation This ToC serves as a roadmap to develop effective WHS systems that support adaptive management and implementation. WHS is fundamental to understanding the impacts of health threats to biodiversity and human and domestic animal health. This ToC presents an approach to operationalize integration of wildlife health into collaborative One Health surveillance. Funding The Science for Nature and People Partnership.

One Health

Mindset

Global Health

10.20944/preprints202407.1055.v1

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Citations (1)