Caterina Negulescu

Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières

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Pierre Gehl

Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières

Daniel Monfort

Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières

Agathe Roullé

Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières

Rosemary Fayjaloun

Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières

Samuel Auclair

Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières

John Douglas

University of Strathclyde

Thomas Ulrich

Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

Evelyne Foerster

Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives

Enrico Tubaldi

University of Strathclyde

Konstantinos Trevlopoulos

Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières

Cooperative Institutions

Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

United States Geological Survey

European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering

Gouvernance, Risque, Environnement, Développement

Université Grenoble Alpes

Institut de Recherche pour le Développement

Institut de physique du globe de Paris

Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

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Bonne pratique à l'attention du public pour réduire la vulnérabilité du bâti existant face au risque de glissement de terrain

Aude Nachbaur Nicolas Taillefer Maéva Lombard Caterina Negulescu Clementine Montane

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Sea-level rise induced change in exposure of low-lying coastal land: implications for coastal conservation strategies

Anthropocene Coasts (2024)

Rémi Thiéblemont Gonéri Le Cozannet Jérémy Rohmer Adrien Privat Romain Guidez

Abstract Coastal erosion and flooding are projected to increase during the 21 st century due to sea-level rise (SLR). To prevent adverse impacts of unmanaged coastal development, national organizations can apply a land protection policy, which consists of acquiring coastal land to avoid further development. Yet, these reserved areas remain exposed to flooding and erosion enhanced by SLR. Here, we quantify the exposure of the coastal land heritage portfolio of the French Conservatoire du littoral (Cdl). We find that 30% (~40%) of the Cdl lands owned (projected to be owned) are located below the contemporary highest tide level. Nearly 10% additional surface exposure is projected by 2100 under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) and 2150 for the moderate scenario (SSP2-4.5). The increase in exposure is largest along the West Mediterranean coast of France. We also find that Cdl land exposure increases more rapidly for SLR in the range of 0–1 m than for SLR in the range 2–4 m. Thus, near-future uncertainty on SLR has the largest impact on Cdl land exposure evolution and related land acquisition planning. Concerning erosion, we find that nearly 1% of Cdl land could be lost in 2100 if observed historical trends continue. Adding the SLR effect could lead to more than 3% land loss. Our study confirms previous findings that Cdl needs to consider land losses due to SLR in its land acquisition strategy and start acquiring land farther from the coast.

Coastal erosion

10.1007/s44218-024-00041-1

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Comparing components for seismic risk modelling using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake

Natural hazards and earth system sciences (2024)

Konstantinos Trevlopoulos Pierre Gehl Caterina Negulescu Helen Crowley Laurentiu Danciu

Abstract. Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk models are essential to improving our awareness of seismic risk, to its management, and to increasing our resilience against earthquake disasters. These models consist of a series of components, which may be evaluated and validated individually, although evaluating and validating these types of models as a whole is challenging due to the lack of recognized procedures. Estimations made with other models, as well as observations of damage from past earthquakes, lend themselves to evaluating the components used to estimate the severity of damage to buildings. Here, we are using a dataset based on emergency post-seismic assessments made after the Le Teil 2019 earthquake, third-party estimations of macroseismic intensity for this seismic event, shake maps, and scenario damage calculations to compare estimations under different modelling assumptions. First we select a rupture model using estimations of ground motion intensity measures and macroseismic intensity. Subsequently, we use scenario damage calculations based on different exposure models, including the aggregated exposure model in the 2020 European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20), as well as different site models. Moreover, a building-by-building exposure model is used in scenario calculations, which individually models the buildings in the dataset. Lastly, we compare the results of a semi-empirical approach to the estimations made with the scenario calculations. The post-seismic assessments are converted to EMS-98 (Grünthal, 1998) damage grades and then used to estimate the damage for the entirety of the building stock in Le Teil. In general, the scenario calculations estimate lower probabilities for damage grades 3–4 than the estimations made using the emergency post-seismic assessments. An exposure and fragility model assembled herein leads to probabilities for damage grades 3–5 with small differences from the probabilities based on the ESRM20 exposure and fragility model, while the semi-empirical approach leads to lower probabilities. The comparisons in this paper also help us learn lessons on how to improve future testing. An improvement would be the use of damage observations collected directly on the EMS-98 scale or on the damage scale in ESRM20. Advances in testing may also be made by employing methods that inform us about the damage at the scale of a city, such as remote sensing or data-driven learning methods fed by a large number of low-cost seismological instruments spread over the building stock.

Seismic risk

10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024

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Limits on the potential accuracy of earthquake risk evaluations using the L’Aquila (Italy) earthquake as an example

Annals of Geophysics (2015)

John Douglas Daniel Monfort Caterina Negulescu Agathe Roullé Olivier Sedan

<p>This article is concerned with attempting to ‘predict’ (hindcast) the damage caused by the L’Aquila 2009 earthquake (M<sub>w</sub> 6.3) and, more generally, with the question of how close predicted damage can ever be to observations. Damage is hindcast using a well-established empirical-based approach based on vulnerability indices and macroseismic intensities, adjusted for local site effects. Using information that was available before the earthquake and assuming the same event characteristics as the L’Aquila mainshock, the overall damage is reasonably well predicted but there are considerable differences in the damage pattern. To understand the reasons for these differences, information that was only available after the event were include within the calculation. Despite some improvement in the predicted damage, in particularly by the modification of the vulnerability indices and the parameter influencing the width of the damage distribution, these hindcasts do not match all the details of the observations. This is because of local effects: both in terms of the ground shaking, which is only detectable by the installation of a much denser strong-motion network and a detailed microzonation, and in terms of the building vulnerability, which cannot be modeled using a statistical approach but would require detailed analytical modeling for which calibration data are likely to be lacking. Future studies should concentrate on adjusting the generic components of the approach to make them more applicable to their location of interest. To increase the number of observations available to make these adjustments, we encourage the collection of damage states (and not just habitability classes) following earthquakes and also the installation of dense strong-motion networks in built-up areas.</p>

Hindcast

Vulnerability

10.4401/ag-6651

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Seismic Damage Assessment of Regular Gravity Design Buildings

Key engineering materials (2013)

Caterina Negulescu K. K. Wijesundara Evelyne Foerster

During the past earthquakes, different low ductile failure modes are observed in the gravity design structures and thus, the most of existing damage indices may fail to assess the damage of gravity design structures accurately in referring to the two main performance levels: immediate occupancy and ultimate limit state. Therefore, this study investigates the possible damage indices for the damage assessment of gravity design frames. For this purpose, among the existing damage indices in the literature, this study considers the inter-story drift and the natural period based damage indices. In addition, two new damage indices based on the wavelet based energy and the dominant inelastic period of a building are also considered in this study. Furthermore, the damage assessment results from the four damage indices for three gravity design buildings are compared and discussed. From the comparison, linear correlations between the inter-storey drift based damage index and the wavelet energy based index, and dominant inelastic period based damage index are observed. Finally, this study concludes based on the observations that no significant effects of number of inelastic cycles to the damage assessment results for low ductile structures. However, this study also highlights the effects of number of inelastic cycles to the damage for medium and high ductile structures.

10.4028/www.scientific.net/kem.569-570.294

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Landslides risk mapping using the Vigirisks web-tool: application in Normandie (France)

HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) (2022)

Gilles Grandjean Yannick Thiéry Audrey Hohmann Caterina Negulescu Farid Smaï

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Comparison of seismic risk estimates using different methods to model fragility

HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) (2014)

Pierre Gehl Ariane Ducellier Caterina Negulescu Jaime Abad John Douglas

Seismic risk evaluations play an important role in preparing for future damaging earthquakes and, consequently, over the past couple of decades hundreds of such studies have been conducted. However, the assessment of seismic risk is always associated with significant uncertainties because of a lack of knowledge and data on earthquake hazard, vulnerability and exposure. This is especially true when assessing the risk of an entire city, where available building information is often rudimentary. These uncertainties have an impact on disaster planning and can lead to an inefficient use of resources...

Vulnerability

Seismic risk

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Remote sensing vs. field survey data in a post-earthquake context: Potentialities and limits of damaged building assessment datasets

Remote Sensing Applications Society and Environment (2019)

Daniel Monfort Caterina Negulescu Myriam Belvaux

Vulnerability

Identification

Crowdsourcing

Microtremor

10.1016/j.rsase.2019.02.003

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Citations (16)

Seismic Performance Based Assessment of the Arsenal de Milly of the Medieval City of Rhodes

Computational methods in applied sciences (2015)

Serena Cattari Άννα Καρατζέτζου Stefania Degli Abbati Dimitris Pitilakis Caterina Negulescu

10.1007/978-3-319-16130-3_15

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VIGIRISKS platform, a web-tool for single and multi-hazard risk assessment

Natural Hazards (2022)

Caterina Negulescu Farid Smaï Robin Quique Audrey Hohmann Ulrich Clain

Abstract Enabling storing, scenario design, documentation, access and execution of scientific computations for multirisks mapping is the aim of the VIGIRISKS web platform currently designed and developed by the BRGM (French Geological Survey). VIGIRISKS platform insures geohazards data management, reproducibility of risks calculations, allows information transparency and improving efficiency by easing collaborative work and sharing results and practices. The scientific scope is multirisk mapping, including cascading effects, in the domain of natural hazard (earthquake, landslide and submersion) from the phenomenon modelling to the impact evaluation on exposed elements such as buildings. VIGIRISKS web platform initially designed for BRGM experts aims to be in a long-term an open repository for national and international experts working on natural hazards management. Integration and deployment of new datasets and computational processes oriented towards risks mapping is as automatic as possible for the convenience of users.

Scope (computer science)

10.1007/s11069-022-05567-6

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Citations (3)