BACKGROUND: Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and liver transplantation. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the burden of HCV-related disease and costs from a Canadian perspective. METHODS: Using a system dynamic framework, the authors quantified the HCV-infected population, disease progression and costs in Canada between 1950 and 2035. Specifically, 36 hypothetical, ageand sex-defined cohorts were tracked to define HCV prevalence, complications and direct medical costs (excluding the cost of antivirals). Model assumptions and costs were extracted from the literature with an emphasis on Canadian data. No incremental increase in antiviral treatment over current levels was assumed, despite the future availability of potent antivirals. RESULTS: The estimated prevalence of viremic hepatitis C cases peaked in 2003 at 260,000 individuals (uncertainty interval 192,460 to 319,880), reached 251,990 (uncertainty interval 177,890 to 314,800) by 2013 and is expected to decline to 188,190 (uncertainty interval 124,330 to 247,200) in 2035. However, the prevalence of advanced liver disease is increasing. The peak annual number of patients with compensated cirrhosis (n=36,210), decompensated cirrhosis (n=3380), hepatocellular carcinoma (n=2220) and liver-related deaths (n=1880) are expected to occur between 2031 and 2035. During this interval, an estimated 32,460 HCV-infected individuals will die of liver-related causes. Total health care costs associated with HCV (excluding treatment) are expected to increase by 60% from 2013 until the peak in 2032, with the majority attributable to cirrhosis and its complications (81% in 2032 versus 56% in 2013). The lifetime cost for an individual with HCV infection in 2013 was estimated to be $64,694. CONCLUSIONS: Although the prevalence of HCV in Canada is decreasing, cases of advanced liver disease and health care costs continue to rise. These results will facilitate disease forecasting, resource planning and the development of rational management strategies for HCV in Canada.
Estimates are that more than 250,000 people in Canada are chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), and many more are unaware of their infection status. If untreated, chronic HCV infection can lead to cirrhosis and subsequent complications such as hepatocellular carcinoma. The Canadian Network on Hepatitis C, supported by the Public Health Agency of Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, has been committed to the scientific study of chronic hepatitis C and to supporting the advocacy work to improve diagnosis and access to HCV care in Canada. Although the treatment of HCV infection has been greatly advanced with direct-acting antivirals, with cure rates as high as 95%, many challenges remain in the implementation of HCV care. These issues include the lack of an effective vaccine, infection screening, treatment failure or resistance, post-cure health issues, limitations of treatment access despite increased provincial subsidization, complex needs of at-risk populations (ie, injection drug users, societal obstacles). At the 6th Canadian Symposium on HCV in March 2017, the theme “Delivering a Cure for Hepatitis C Infection: What Are the Remaining Gaps?” provided a framework in which basic scientists, clinicians, epidemiologists, social scientists, and community members interested in HCV research in Canada could showcase how they are working to address these ongoing challenges.
Periodic fever, aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis, and cervical adenitis (PFAPA) syndrome is a common cause of periodic fever in children. The pathogenesis of PFAPA is unknown but likely involves immune system dysregulation and may be initiated by an environmental trigger. Tonsillectomy resolves or improves symptoms in some patients, but the reason for this is unknown; moreover, specific abnormalities in tonsillectomy specimens from PFAPA patients have not been described. Here, we report measles virus in tonsil from a child with PFAPA. Measles-type viral cytopathic effect was discovered on histological examination of tonsillar tissue after therapeutic tonsillectomy for PFAPA. Molecular testing showed the left tonsil was positive for measles RNA by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) while the right tonsil was inconclusive (weakly positive). Real-time RT-PCR specific for measles vaccine strain RNA (genotype A) was weakly reactive in the left tonsil tissue when tested in 3 independent replicates, but this result could not be confirmed with conventional genotyping by sequencing. The relationship and clinical significance between measles virus and PFAPA in this case is unclear but may be related to PFAPA-associated immune dysregulation. Additional investigation of measles virus in PFAPA patients would be helpful in further exploring this potential association.
One- and two-dose mRNA vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection by dosing interval and time since vaccination were assessed among healthcare workers (HCWs) in publicly funded acute and community (nonresidential) healthcare facilities in British Columbia, Canada.A test-negative design was used with controls matched to cases (6:1) on epidemiological week of SARS-CoV-2 test date. mRNA vaccination was defined by receipt of the first dose ≥21 days or second dose ≥14 days before the test date. HCWs ≥18 years old tested for SARS-CoV-2 between epi-weeks 3 and 39 (January 17-October 2, 2021) were included, when varying dosing intervals and a mix of circulating variants of concern contributed, including Delta dominance provincially from epi-week 31 (August 1).Single- and two-dose analyses included 1265 and 1246 cases, respectively. The median follow-up period (interquartile range) was 49 (34-69) days for single-dose and 89 (61-123) days for two-dose recipients, with 12%, 31%, and 58% of second doses given 3-5, 6, or ≥7 weeks after the first. Adjusted mRNA VE against SARS-CoV-2 was 71% (95% CI, 66%-76%) for one dose and 90% (95% CI, 88%-92%) for two doses, similar to two heterologous mRNA doses (92%; 95% CI, 86%-95%). Two-dose VE remained >80% at ≥28 weeks post-second dose. Two-dose VE was consistently 5%-7% higher with a ≥7-week vs 3-5-week interval between doses, but with overlapping confidence intervals.Among HCWs, we report substantial single-dose and strong and sustained two-dose mRNA vaccine protection, with the latter maintained for at least 7 months. These findings support a longer interval between doses, with global health and equity implications.
Background: In late 2021, the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant emerged and rapidly replaced Delta as the dominant variant globally. The increased transmissibility of the variant led to surges in case rates as well as increases in hospitalizations, however, the true severity of the variant remained unclear. We aimed to provide robust estimates of Omicron severity relative to Delta.Methods: This study was conducted using a retrospective cohort design with data from the British Columbia COVID-19 Cohort – a large provincial surveillance platform with linkage to administrative datasets. To capture the time of co-circulation with Omicron and Delta, December 2021 was chosen as the study period. We included individuals diagnosed with Omicron or Delta infection, as determined by whole genome sequencing (WGS). To assess the severity (hospitalization, ICU admission, length of stay) of Omicron, we conducted adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, weighted by inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW).Findings: The cohort was composed of 13,128 individuals (7,729 Omicron and 5,399 Delta). There were 419 COVID-19 hospitalizations, with 118 (22%) among people diagnosed with Omicron (crude rate=1·5% Omicron, 5·6% Delta). In multivariable IPTW analysis, Omicron was associated with a 50% lower risk of hospitalization compared to Delta (aHR=0·50; 95%CI=0·43-0·59), a 73% lower risk of ICU admission (aHR=0·27; 95%CI=0·19-0·38), and a 5 days shorter hospital stay on average (ß=-5·03; 95% CI=-8·01 - -2·05).Interpretation: Our analysis supports findings from other studies demonstrating an association between Omicron and a lower risk of severe outcomes relative to Delta.Funding Information: Canadian Institutes for Health Research (Institute of Infection and Immunity). Declaration of Interests: MK has grants and contracts with AbCellera, Roche, Hologic, and Siemens, all of which unrelated to this study. NZJ participates in Abbvie Advisory Board meeting. All others authors declare no conflicts of interest.Ethics Approval Statement: This study was reviewed and approved by the Behavioural Research Ethics Board at the University of British Columbia (#H20-02097).
Abstract To evaluate immune responses to COVID-19 vaccines in adults aged 50 years and older, spike protein (S)-specific antibody concentration, avidity, and function (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) inhibition surrogate neutralization, antibody dependent cellular phagocytosis (ADCP), and T cell responses were quantified in response to two-dose series. Eighty-four adults were vaccinated with either: mRNA/mRNA (mRNA-1273 and/or BNT162b2); ChAdOx1-S/mRNA; or ChAdOx1-S/ChAdOx1-S. Anti-S IgG concentrations, ADCP scores and ACE2 inhibiting antibody concentrations were highest at one-month post-dose two and declined by four-months post-dose two for all groups. mRNA/mRNA and ChAdOx1-S/mRNA schedules had significantly higher antibody responses than ChAdOx1-S/ChAdOx1-S. CD8 T cell responses one-month post-dose two were associated with increased ACE2 surrogate neutralization. Antibody avidity was maintained between one-month and four-months post-dose two and did not significantly differ between groups by four-months post-dose two. In determining COVID-19 correlates of protection, both antibody concentration and avidity should be considered.
Background Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is generally interpreted in the context of vaccine match/mismatch to circulating strains with evolutionary drift in the latter invoked to explain reduced protection. During the 2012–13 season, however, detailed genotypic and phenotypic characterization shows that low VE was instead related to mutations in the egg-adapted H3N2 vaccine strain rather than antigenic drift in circulating viruses. Methods/Findings Component-specific VE against medically-attended, PCR-confirmed influenza was estimated in Canada by test-negative case-control design. Influenza A viruses were characterized genotypically by amino acid (AA) sequencing of established haemagglutinin (HA) antigenic sites and phenotypically through haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. H3N2 viruses were characterized in relation to the WHO-recommended, cell-passaged vaccine prototype (A/Victoria/361/2011) as well as the egg-adapted strain as per actually used in vaccine production. Among the total of 1501 participants, influenza virus was detected in 652 (43%). Nearly two-thirds of viruses typed/subtyped were A(H3N2) (394/626; 63%); the remainder were A(H1N1)pdm09 (79/626; 13%), B/Yamagata (98/626; 16%) or B/Victoria (54/626; 9%). Suboptimal VE of 50% (95%CI: 33–63%) overall was driven by predominant H3N2 activity for which VE was 41% (95%CI: 17–59%). All H3N2 field isolates were HI-characterized as well-matched to the WHO-recommended A/Victoria/361/2011 prototype whereas all but one were antigenically distinct from the egg-adapted strain as per actually used in vaccine production. The egg-adapted strain was itself antigenically distinct from the WHO-recommended prototype, and bore three AA mutations at antigenic sites B [H156Q, G186V] and D [S219Y]. Conversely, circulating viruses were identical to the WHO-recommended prototype at these positions with other genetic variation that did not affect antigenicity. VE was 59% (95%CI:16–80%) against A(H1N1)pdm09, 67% (95%CI: 30–85%) against B/Yamagata (vaccine-lineage) and 75% (95%CI: 29–91%) against B/Victoria (non-vaccine-lineage) viruses. Conclusions These findings underscore the need to monitor vaccine viruses as well as circulating strains to explain vaccine performance. Evolutionary drift in circulating viruses cannot be regulated, but influential mutations introduced as part of egg-based vaccine production may be amenable to improvements.
Background. The 2014–2015 influenza season was distinguished by an epidemic of antigenically-drifted A(H3N2) viruses and vaccine components identical to 2013–2014. We report 2014–2015 vaccine effectiveness (VE) from Canada and explore contributing agent–host factors. Methods. VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza was derived using a test-negative design among outpatients with influenza-like illness. Sequencing identified amino acid mutations at key antigenic sites of the viral hemagglutinin protein. Results. Overall, 815/1930 (42%) patients tested influenza-positive: 590 (72%) influenza A and 226 (28%) influenza B. Most influenza A viruses with known subtype were A(H3N2) (570/577; 99%); 409/460 (89%) sequenced viruses belonged to genetic clade 3C.2a and 39/460 (8%) to clade 3C.3b. Dominant clade 3C.2a viruses bore the pivotal mutations F159Y (a cluster-transition position) and K160T (a predicted gain of glycosylation) compared to the mismatched clade 3C.1 vaccine. VE against A(H3N2) was −17% (95% confidence interval [CI], −50% to 9%) overall with clade-specific VE of −13% (95% CI, −51% to 15%) for clade 3C.2a but 52% (95% CI, −17% to 80%) for clade 3C.3b. VE against A(H3N2) was 53% (95% CI, 10% to 75%) for patients vaccinated in 2014-2015 only, significantly lower at −32% (95% CI, −75% to 0%) if also vaccinated in 2013–2014 and −54% (95% CI, −108% to −14%) if vaccinated each year since 2012–2013. VE against clade-mismatched B(Yamagata) viruses was 42% (95% CI, 10% to 62%) with less-pronounced reduction from prior vaccination compared to A(H3N2). Conclusions. Variation in the viral genome and negative effects of serial vaccination likely contributed to poor influenza vaccine performance in 2014–2015.
