Background Novel coronavirus disease has been recently a concern for worldwide public health. To determine epidemic rate probability at any time in any region of interest, one needs efficient bio-system reliability approach, particularly suitable for multi-regional environmental and health systems, observed over a sufficient period of time, resulting in a reliable long-term forecast of novel coronavirus infection rate. Traditional statistical methods dealing with temporal observations of multi-regional processes do not have the multi-dimensionality advantage, that suggested methodology offers, namely dealing efficiently with multiple regions at the same time and accounting for cross-correlations between different regional observations. Methods Modern multi-dimensional novel statistical method was directly applied to raw clinical data, able to deal with territorial mapping. Novel reliability method based on statistical extreme value theory has been suggested to deal with challenging epidemic forecast. Authors used MATLAB optimization software. Results This paper described a novel bio-system reliability approach, particularly suitable for multi-country environmental and health systems, observed over a sufficient period of time, resulting in a reliable long-term forecast of extreme novel coronavirus death rate probability. Namely, accurate maximum recorded patient numbers are predicted for the years to come for the analyzed provinces. Conclusions The suggested method performed well by supplying not only an estimate but 95% confidence interval as well. Note that suggested methodology is not limited to any specific epidemics or any specific terrain, namely its truly general. The only assumption and limitation is bio-system stationarity, alternatively trend analysis should be performed first. The suggested methodology can be used in various public health applications, based on their clinical survey data.
The pressure-resisting structures on the manned submersible include not only the manned sphere hull but also various pressure-resisting tanks and pressure-resisting equipment. When implosion occurs, the impact energy will be transferred to the adjacent components on the deep-sea submersible, causing great danger to the safety of the deep-sea submersible. In this paper, the adjustable ballast water tank is taken as an example. Pressure hull collapse under a high-pressure environment is simulated. By analysing the calculation results of the three-phase coupling model, it can be obtained that the collapse mode and collapse load in the finite element analysis are in agreement with the experiment. To reduce the impact of pressure hull collapse, the deep-sea explosion-proof device is designed and the wall thickness is calculated. This paper provides a reference for the study of pressure hull collapse and protective cover design in high-pressure environments.
Abstract Background Measurement of the Chinese burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weight (DW) that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 DW study indicates that it is limited by lack of geographic variation in DW data and by the current measurement methodology. We aim to estimate DW for a set of health states from major diseases in the Wuhan population. Methods We conducted the DW measurement study for 206 health states through a household survey with computer-assisted face-to-face interviews and a web-based survey. Based on GBD 2013 DW study, paired comparison (PC) and Population health equivalence (PHE) method was used and different PC/PHE questions were randomly assigned to each respondent. In statistical analysis, the PC data was analyzed by probit regression. The probit regression results will be anchored by results from the PHE data analyzed by interval regression on the DW scale units between 0 (no loss of health) and 1 (loss equivalent to death). Results A total of 2610 and 3140 individuals were included in the household and web-based survey, respectively. The results from the total pooled data showed health state “mild anemia” (DW = 0.005, 95% UI 0.000–0.027) or “allergic rhinitis (hay fever)” (0.005, 95% UI 0.000–0.029) had the lowest DW and “heroin and other opioid dependence, severe” had the highest DW (0.699, 95% UI 0.579–0.827). A high correlation coefficient (Pearson’s r = 0.876; P < 0.001) for DWs of same health states was observed between Wuhan’s survey and GBD 2013 DW survey. Health states referred to mental symptom, fatigue, and the residual category of other physical symptoms were statistically significantly associated with a lower Wuhan’s DWs than the GBD’s DWs. Health states with disfigurement and substance use symptom had a higher DW in Wuhan population than the GBD 2013 study. Conclusions This set of DWs could be used to calculate local diseases burden for health policy-decision in Wuhan population. The DW differences between the GBD’s survey and Wuhan’s survey suggest that there might be some contextual or culture factors influencing assessment on the severity of diseases.
Human thermal comfort on ships is an important factor in the efficiency and quality of life of personnel.A year-long human thermal comfort survey is conducted in Chinese ship cabins environment.A field questionnaire is taken to obtain the human subjective thermal responses, including three groups: winter, summer, and transitional seasons.The data for each group are collected from the residential cabins, the dining room, and the cockpit.The thermal neutral temperature, the thermal acceptance temperature, and the thermal preference temperature are presented to adequately express the human subjective thermal response.The results indicated that the thermal acceptance temperature and thermal preference temperature are higher than the thermal neutral temperature of the interior spaces in all three seasons.In the dining room, the thermal preference temperature in winter, summer, and transition seasons are 3.0 °C, 0.4 °C, and 1.2 °C higher than the thermal neutral temperature.People prefer a warmer environment in interior spaces on the ship.The thermal neutral temperature and thermal acceptance temperature of the ship's cockpit exhibited small differences in the three seasons.The cockpit crew is more adaptable to the temperature fluctuations resulting from seasonal changes.This research contributes to enhancing human thermal comfort by improving marine cabins' thermal environment.
Background: Novel coronavirus disease has been recently a concern for worldwide public health. To determine epidemic rate probability at any time in any region of interest, one needs efficient bio-system reliability approach, particularly suitable for multi-regional environmental and health systems, observed over a sufficient period of time, resulting in a reliable long-term forecast of novel coronavirus infection rate. Traditional statistical methods dealing with temporal observations of multi-regional processes do not have the multi-dimensionality advantage, that suggested methodology offers, namely dealing efficiently with multiple regions at the same time and accounting for cross-correlations between different regional observations.Methods: Modern multi-dimensional novel statistical method was directly applied to raw clinical data, able to deal with territorial mapping. Novel reliability method based on statistical extreme value theory has been suggested to deal with challenging epidemic forecast. Authors used MATLAB optimization software.Results: This paper described a novel bio-system reliability approach, particularly suitable for multi-country environmental and health systems, observed over a sufficient period of time, resulting in a reliable long-term forecast of extreme novel coronavirus death rate probability. Namely, accurate maximum recorded patient numbers are predicted for the years to come for the analyzed provinces.Conclusions: The suggested method performed well by supplying not only an estimate but 95% confidence interval as well. Note that suggested methodology is not limited to any specific epidemics or any specific terrain, namely its truly general. The only assumption and limitation is bio-system stationarity, alternatively trend analysis should be performed first. The suggested methodology can be used in various public health applications, based on their clinical survey data.
The quality and quantity of Japanese teaching have been remarkably improved in in recent years with the increase of the number of students learning Japanese.However, the Japanese teaching has not yet got rid of the shackles of traditional teaching.There are still many deficiencies in the teaching of Japanese majors, especially the Japanese pronunciation teaching.The difficulties of Japanese pronunciation teaching lie in the factors of the dialect language transfer, psychology, teachers, the teaching aids and environment. Current Situation of College Japanese TeachingCurrently, most colleges take English as the first foreign language in foreign language teaching in colleges.In the choice of second foreign languages, the first language still occupies the first place in the school, and most of the students have no Japanese basis.College Japanese students mostly start from Japanese pseudonym pronunciation and letter identification, without any Japanese basis.Compared with the Japanese professional courses, the opening time is shorter.The time of teaching is generally four hours a week, the length is two school years, and the short term is half a semester.With the rapid growth of China's economic strength and the increasing international status, the communication with neighboring Japan will be more extensive, and the demand for Japanese compound talents will continue to grow.Therefore, a lot of people regard Japanese as the first language of the second foreign language.For a long time, colleges and universities did not pay enough attention to Japanese teaching, and the funds were not in place.Many schools were backward in teaching facilities, and the teaching mode was single.They still stayed on textbooks, chalk and blackboard.Compared with the extensive and extensive English reference books, the Japanese books in the winter library seem insignificant, which directly leads to the lack of a good learning environment for foreign language learners.As most of the students studying Japanese have already mastered another foreign language, and most of the universities take Japanese as an elective course, there is no requirement for over grade, so most students do not attach enough importance to it.If they are easy to learn, they will choose Japanese course: some learners are interested in Japanese, and they like to see Japanese animation culture, Japanese dramas and so on.Learners who have different learning purposes are enthusiastic at the initial stage of their learning.Due to the lack of learning goals and pressures, the enthusiasm for learning Japanese later is not high.They study Japanese as a foreign language of postgraduate study.There are different degrees of emphasis on knowledge and light ability in college Japanese teaching in colleges.Some teachers regard the second language as a minor, who don't spend enough energy and time in the second language teaching. Problems of College Japanese in Jingdezhen Ceramic InstituteThe author has conducted the investigation of Japanese pronunciation learning for many times in the teaching experience in recent years for the professional Japanese learners.The main content and main problems are shown as follows 2.1 Late start of Pronunciation Teaching and Severe Interference of Mother Dialects
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