Historically, inflation is negatively correlated with stock returns, leading investors to fear inflation. We document using a variety of measures that this association became positive in the U.S. during the 2008-2015 period. We then show how an off-the-shelf New Keynesian model can reproduce this change of association due to the binding zero lower bound (ZLB) on short-term nominal interest rates during this period: in the model, demand shocks become more important when the ZLB binds because the central bank cannot respond as effectively as when interest rates are positive. This changing correlation in turn reduces the term premium, and hence contributes to explaining the decline in long-term interest rates. We use the model to evaluate this mechanism quantitatively. Our results shed light on the validity of the New Keynesian ZLB model, a cornerstone of modern macroeconomic theory.
This paper studies the relationship between stock prices and fluctuations in TFP. We document a strong predictability of lagged stock price growth on future TFP growth at medium horizons. To explore the sources of this co-movement, we develop a one-sector real business model augmented to allow for (i) endogenous technology through R&D and adoption, and (ii) exogenous shocks to the risk premium. Model simulations produce predictability patterns quantitatively similar to the data. A version of the model with exogenous technology produces no predictability of TFP growth. Decomposing historical TFP, we show that the predictability uncovered in the data is fully driven by the endogenous component of TFP. This finding suggests that fluctuations in risk premia impact TFP growth through their effect on the speed of technology diffusion instead of responding to exogenous fluctuations in future TFP.
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This paper compares the Calvo model with the Rotemberg model in a fully nonlinear dynamic new Keynesian framework with an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Although the two models are equivalent to a first-order approximation, they generate very different results regarding the policy functions and the government spending multiplier based on nonlinear solutions. The multiplier in the Calvo model is less than one for low persistence of the government spending shock and rises above one as the persistence increases, but eventually decreases with the persistence and falls below one for sufficiently high persistence. In addition, the multiplier increases with the duration of the ZLB. By contrast, the multiplier in the Rotemberg model is less than one and decreases with the persistence. Surprisingly, it also decreases with the duration of the ZLB.
Historically, inflation is negatively correlated with stock returns, leading investors to fear inflation.We document using a variety of measures that this association became positive in the U.S. during the 2008-2015 period.We then show how an off-the-shelf New Keynesian model can reproduce this change of association due to the binding zero lower bound (ZLB) on short-term nominal interest rates during this period: in the model, demand shocks become more important when the ZLB binds because the central bank cannot respond as effectively as when interest rates are positive.This changing correlation in turn reduces the term premium, and hence contributes to explaining the decline in long-term interest rates.We use the model to evaluate this mechanism quantitatively.Our results shed light on the validity of the New Keynesian ZLB model, a cornerstone of modern macroeconomic theory.
We develop a parsimonious New Keynesian macro-finance model with downward nominal rigidities to understand secular and cyclical movements in Treasury bond premia.Downward nominal rigidities create state-dependence in output and inflation dynamics: a higher level of inflation makes prices more flexible, leading output and inflation to be more volatile, and bonds to become more risky.The model matches well the relation between the level of inflation and a number of salient macro-finance moments.Moreover, we show that empirically, inflation and output respond more strongly to productivity shocks when inflation is high, as predicted by the model.
