In settings where measles has been eliminated, vaccine-derived immunity may in theory wane more rapidly due to a lack of immune boosting by circulating measles virus. We aimed to assess whether measles vaccine effectiveness (VE) waned over time, and if so, whether differentially in measles-eliminated and measles-endemic settings.We performed a systematic literature review of studies that reported VE and time since vaccination with measles-containing vaccine (MCV). We extracted information on case definition (clinical symptoms and/or laboratory diagnosis), method of vaccination status ascertainment (medical record or vaccine registry), as well as any biases which may have arisen from cold chain issues and a lack of an age at first dose of MCV. We then used linear regression to evaluate VE as a function of age at first dose of MCV and time since MCV.After screening 14,782 citations, we identified three full-text articles from measles-eliminated settings and 33 articles from measles-endemic settings. In elimination settings, two-dose VE estimates increased as age at first dose of MCV increased and decreased as time since MCV increased; however, the small number of studies available limited interpretation. In measles-endemic settings, one-dose VE increased by 1.5% (95% CI 0.5, 2.5) for every month increase in age at first dose of MCV. We found no evidence of waning VE in endemic settings.The paucity of data from measles-eliminated settings indicates that additional studies and approaches (such as studies using proxies including laboratory correlates of protection) are needed to answer the question of whether VE in measles-eliminated settings wanes. Age at first dose of MCV was the most important factor in determining VE. More VE studies need to be conducted in elimination settings, and standards should be developed for information collected and reported in such studies.
We conducted a systematic review to assess whether measles humoral immunity wanes in previously infected or vaccinated populations in measles elimination settings.After screening 16 822 citations, we identified 9 articles from populations exposed to wild-type measles and 16 articles from vaccinated populations that met our inclusion criteria.Using linear regression, we found that geometric mean titers (GMTs) decreased significantly in individuals who received 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) by 121.8 mIU/mL (95% confidence interval [CI], -212.4 to -31.1) per year since vaccination over 1 to 5 years, 53.7 mIU/mL (95% CI, -95.3 to -12.2) 5 to 10 years, 33.2 mIU/mL (95% CI, -62.6 to -3.9), 10 to 15 years, and 24.1 mIU/mL (95% CI, -51.5 to 3.3) 15 to 20 years since vaccination. Decreases in GMT over time were not significant after 1 dose of MCV or after infection. Decreases in the proportion of seropositive individuals over time were not significant after 1 or 2 doses of MCV or after infection.Measles antibody waning in vaccinated populations should be considered in planning for measles elimination.
Many studies assume that the serologic correlate of protection from measles disease is 120 mIU/mL. We systematically reviewed the literature to examine the evidence supporting this correlate of protection.We searched peer-reviewed and gray literature for articles reporting a measles correlate of protection. We excluded studies focusing on special populations, infants aged <9 months, and those using animal models or nonstandard vaccines or administration routes. We extracted and synthesized data from full-text articles that met inclusion criteria.We screened 14 778 articles and included 5 studies in our review. The studies reported either preexposure antibody concentrations of individuals along with a description of symptoms postexposure, or the proportion of measles cases that had preexposure antibody concentrations above a threshold of immunity specified by the authors. Some studies also described secondary antibody responses upon exposure. The variation in laboratory methods between studies made comparisons difficult. Some of the studies that assumed 120 mIU/mL as a correlate of protection identified symptomatic individuals with preexposure titers exceeding this threshold.Our findings underscore the scant data upon which the commonly used 120 mIU/mL measles threshold of protection is based, suggesting that further work is required to characterize the measles immunity threshold.
